April will be a make-or-break month for North Texas in coronavirus fight

North Texas’ clash with the coronavirus enters a critical stage today as April is expected to be a make-or-break month.

For the next 30 days, county judges and commissioners, mayors and city council members, labor and business leaders will face decisions big and small. Thousands of residents out of work will struggle to make rent, pay other bills and buy groceries. Hospitals are bracing for a surge that based on some models is expected to escalate at the end of the month.

It’s been eight days since Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins took the dramatic step of ordering residents to stay home. Most other North Texas counties quickly followed suit. Now Jenkins and other officials here and around the state are watching — hoping — the bold action was enough to slow the spread of the coronavirus and ensure a return to normal as soon as possible.

“What happens in the next week-and-a-half to two is critical for the community,” said Dr. Phil Huang, Dallas County’s health department director. “There are a lot of unknowns. The estimated impact is dependent, in part, on people doing their part and helping slow down this disease.”

Already, the virus has killed 41 in Texas — 13 in Dallas. More than 3,200 Texans have tested positive for the virus, including 631 in Dallas. The numbers will rise. By how much is unclear. It will largely depend on how much social distancing people practice.

Staying home in April, as mundane and economically challenging as it may be, is the key to ensuring Dallas and the rest of the state curb new cases of COVID-19, the disease that follows the coronavirus, officials say.

Since there is no vaccine or cure to the virus, social distancing is the most effective strategy public health officials have said will slow the spread. And yet, Dallas won’t know the effects of staying home for several weeks.

The data officials are using to base their decisions and measure the effectiveness of their strategies is always playing catch up. It can take up to 14 days for a person to exhibit symptoms. But testing has not been widespread enough to capture the breadth of the infection. And when someone is tested, it can take up to a week for those results to be reported.

The time delay only compounds the uncertainty of the moment.

“It’s worrisome,” Huang said. “You go out during the weekend and there were a lot of people out. It seems business as usual. People really need to take the judges’ safer-at-home orders seriously.”

‘Harder decisions’

Jenkins will start April by asking county commissioners to extend his order until at least the end of the month. The commissioners are scheduled to meet Friday and give their blessing.

There are a number of other decisions Jenkins’ team is working on, including creating rules for retailers, truck drivers and other workers still on the job. To do so, he’s hosting regular conference calls with industry associations, labor unions and health care professionals.

“All these people are heroes,” he said. “This isn’t the big hand of government. It’s us making sure we don’t have people with a fever working and keeping people safe from disease and taking care of the needs of businesses.”

Jenkins is also putting together a team to create a plan to “turn the economy back on” once the pandemic is tamed. That includes possible tax relief, which he’ll pitch to his fellow commissioners later this month.

The judge’s team is also working with hospitals and other health care groups to closely monitor bed counts, medical supplies and ventilators.

“These are the harder decisions we’re making every day,” he said.

At Dallas City Hall, two ad hoc committees have been meeting to explore any action the city could take to ease the burden of the pandemic.

In a memo to council members this week, Mayor Eric Johnson said an ordinance to try to stave off evictions, proposed by Councilman Adam Bazaldua, would be considered.

Code enforcement staff have been charged with ensuring Dallas residents follow the county and city’s stay-at-home order. So far they have only been providing notices as warnings but no citations. Carl Simpson, director of code compliance, has said he wants residents to continue to voluntarily comply with the order.

Council members have emphasized that the city wants to avoid any punitive measures against residents who are already struggling.

While health and government officials work to manage the outbreak, families are struggling to pay bills and buy groceries.

Josephine Lopez Paul, the lead organizer for the Dallas Area Interfaith, a coalition of nonprofits and religious organizations that advocates for low-income families, said local, state and federal policymakers need to spend this month thinking about how to reshape the economy.

Lopez Paul said she hopes officials find a way to mitigate debt families may build as they continue to stay unable to work.

“This is going to be a depression,” she said. “This is the fastest economic decline we’ve seen in modern history. We’re not going to flip a switch one day and everyone go back to work. Some folks are never going to be able to recover from this.”

‘It’s eerie’

Jennifer Gates, a Dallas council member who’s been tasked with communicating with hospitals, said it will be critical for the city to prepare for the surge in April.

“It’s going to take everybody being responsible and acting in a responsible manner to get us through this,” Gates said. “Everybody has a part to play.”

Dr. Fred Cerise, Parkland Hospital & Health System’s president and CEO, said the county hospital is ready to care for up to 700 patients at one time.

“It’s eerie right now,” Cerise said, describing an unusually quiet lobby. “If you walk in the hospital today, it’s going to seem quiet.”

Parkland began limiting guests weeks ago and has canceled all elective surgeries. The hospital has built a 36-bed triage center outside its emergency room to care for individuals who may be infected with the virus and experiencing breathing problems. It has also retrofitted its pre- and post-operation spaces to create more room.

Staff and medical supplies levels are adequate at the moment, Cerise said. However, those will be the first taxed later in the month.

“All health care systems are always planning,” he said. “ You always have preparation. You have contingency plans. And you do exercises. It’s only in real-time do you get to see how it’s going to play out.”

He added: “The uncertainty is the hardest thing to deal with.”