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As impeachment trial ends, John Cornyn’s 2020 fate tied to Donald Trump

John Cornyn has made bedfellows with President Donald Trump, and their connection will determine whether the longtime senator will win another term or get voted out of office.

The 2020 elections are largely a referendum on Trump’s presidency and behavior in the White House. Through it all Cornyn has backed Trump and most of his policies. He was against allowing witnesses and documents in Trump’s impeachment trial, and Cornyn will vote against Trump’s removal from office on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.

Cornyn has been low key throughout the process, but he has called the case against the president “insane.”

“I’ll listen to the Dems’ insane argument for President Trump’s removal…. But I’ll be a force for truth. For facts,” Cornyn wrote supporters. “I will FIGHT to make sure that their radical argument for removal goes NOWHERE. I will fight [for] our president’s exoneration.”

History will judge whether Cornyn’s vote was correct or cowardly. Before that happens, there’s the November general election. Cornyn and Republicans are betting that the majority of Texas voters will support the president and most of the GOP ticket, and that the impeachment process will rally conservative voters to the polls.

Democrats are already tying Cornyn to the president in the hopes that Trump will be more of an albatross than coattail. Since the night Trump won the White House, Democrats have been mobilizing for the 2020 elections in order to settle the score. Cornyn’s fate is tied to Trump, and for the next few months, he will try to define himself before Democrats create their own narrative of him.

First elected in 2002, it’s curious that Cornyn doesn’t have a well-defined brand in Texas. He’s a powerful senator that once served as whip. The former Texas attorney general and Texas Supreme Court justice ran for Senate to help then President George W. Bush get his judicial appointees confirmed.

But after three terms, Cornyn is not as popular with Texas GOP primary voters as fellow Sen. Ted Cruz. The Dallas Morning News-University of Texas-Tyler poll released Sunday revealed that 56 percent of voters in the GOP primary support Cornyn over several other little-known contenders. But 36 percent of respondents “wasn’t sure” about the primary race.

As for Trump and impeachment, the poll found that 48 percent of respondents didn’t believe Trump should be removed from office. Most Democrats (81%) wanted Trump removed, while Republicans (84%) did not. Independents appeared split, with 44% wanting Trump out and 42% not wanting him ousted from office after the impeachment trial.

Democrats former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell of Houston, left, Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards, former Army helicopter pilot MJ Hegar of Round Rock, Cristina Ramirez, and State Sen. Royce West are all trying to unseat longtime incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn
Democrats former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell of Houston, left, Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards, former Army helicopter pilot MJ Hegar of Round Rock, Cristina Ramirez, and State Sen. Royce West are all trying to unseat longtime incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn

While Cornyn is not as polarizing as Cruz, he’s also not beloved by legions of conservative voters. Many of them are indifferent or not familiar with him. That’s why his fate will be so closely tied to Trump, who in 2016 beat Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 percentage points.

In 2018 Cornyn watched as Cruz squeaked a 2.6 percent victory over former Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso. That high-profile race captured the attention of most Texans and the nation. Cornyn’s contest, which will feature a Democrat that is not as well-known, well-funded or dynamic as O’Rourke, will be obscured by the presidential race.

The Republican senator has already jumped out to a big fundraising lead, which his campaign manager said was aided by the backlash over Trump’s impeachment. He’ll continue to raise money with donors looking to support the president, while Democrats and their eventual Senate nominee will press the attack.

For clues about Cornyn’s fate, pay attention to the math.

Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994 because there are more Republican voters in the electorate. In 2018 O’Rourke helped the party close the gap by appealing to independents and soft Republicans. Democrats will have to do that, and improve turnout with their base voters to beat Trump and Cornyn.

In the heat of his battle against O’Rourke, Cruz predicted that he would win because conservative voters that dominate the state would turnout. They did.

Cornyn’s loyalty to Trump signals that he believes Texas is not on the cusp of turning purple or blue, but still decidedly red. Right now the Cook Political Report rates the race as solid Republican.

Still, Democrats are pushing to make Cornyn’s impeachment trial votes not just a 2020 blunder, but a political calculation that will cement him on the wrong side of history.

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