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WASHINGTON – It’s still an open question whether Joe Biden will make a play for Texas, but polls are definitely moving his way. And President Donald Trump’s visit to West Texas on Wednesday suggests he’s not taking any chances.
In Midland, the president will tour an oil rig at Double Eagle Energy and highlight his energy policies before 200 or so industry executives and workers in an air conditioned tent with plenty of space between chairs.
His hosts will be Double Eagle founders Cody Campbell and John Sellers, who sold 72,000 acres in the oil rich Permian Basin three years ago for a cool $2.8 billion.
Trump’s first stop will be at the Odessa Marriott to meet with campaign donors. Ticket prices range from $2,500 for lunch to $50,000 for a couple’s photo with the president and $100,000 to join him in a more private roundtable discussion.
It’s his 16th presidential trip to Texas, a show of ardor that supports Democrats’ contention that the state is up for grabs after a quarter-century as a Republican fortress. Sen. Ted Cruz will fly with him to Texas, an aide said.
East Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Tyler, was supposed to fly aboard Air Force One, as well. But he tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday morning, according to Politico. Gohmert has pointedly refused to wear a mask in public.
Presidents don’t generally waste their precious time in states they can rely on in the next election. But polls have shown a dead heat in Texas for months, a far cry from his 9-point win in 2016– itself the most anemic showing for a GOP nominee since President Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976.
“Texas families are suffering. They’re suffering because President Trump’s inability to lead this country and combat the spread of COVID-19,” Biden said in a statement issued by his campaign ahead of Trump’s visit. “As Hurricane Hanna ravages Southeast Texas, the situation has become far more precarious….Mr. President, now isn’t the time for politicking or photo-ops. Texans need a president with the experience and vision to fight for families no matter how many catastrophes reach our shores.”
The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed more than 5,700 Texans, including 42 deaths in Ector County, which includes Odessa and 36 in Midland County. Both are overwhelmingly Trump country. He carried Ector with 69% and Midland with 76%.
But if Texas really is a battleground, it’s the most important in the country – a must-win for Trump. Without it, Republicans have no realistic path to the White House thanks to Democrats’ lock on New York and California.
Biden reportedly hasn’t decided yet whether to take a shot at Texas and some advisers call it a fool’s errand, as do Republicans. It’s vast and costly, with more than 20 media markets, including some of the country’s most expensive, though a win would clinch victory.
“Joe Biden and Texas Democrats are delusional if they think they can win Texas. We welcome the Biden campaign to light their funds on fire by investing in the Lone Star State,” said Samantha Cotton, spokeswoman for the Trump campaign. “With less than 100 days until the election, no staff, and no ground game infrastructure, Biden’s campaign cannot keep pace with Trump Victory this late in the game. Texans will overwhelmingly reelect President Trump in November.”
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Friends in Texas
Old friends will greet the president when Air Force One touches down in Midland on Wednesday afternoon:
Rick Perry, the former governor who served as energy secretary in the Trump cabinet for nearly three years, will serve as a West Texas guide and emissary to the oil and gas executives Trump will rub elbows with.
Gov. Greg Abbott, who routinely trades compliments with Trump over their respective handling of the pandemic. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the president’s Texas campaign co-chair. Texas attorney general Ken Paxton, who marked five years under indictment on Tuesday as he awaits trial for securities fraud.
Last Thursday, the president named him co-chair of his “Lawyers for Trump” committee.
Double Eagle employs about 160 workers and produces some 50,000 barrels a day across 530 wells.
White House officials said Trump will showcase the growth in U.S. energy production, providing jobs and holding down prices for consumers, and his efforts to roll back regulations and streamline permitting of projects.
Environmentalists complain that he has defanged federal pollution controls.
“Ensuring our energy industry remains viable during this pandemic is imperative to Midland-Odessa, to the rest of Texas, and the entire United States,” Cruz wrote in an op-ed published Wednesday in the Midland Reporter-Telegram, adding that the visit comes “at a critical time for Texas’ energy industry. Just a few months ago, before the deadly coronavirus pandemic brought our booming, blue-collar economy to a halt, the United States was the No. 1 producer of both oil and natural gas on the planet, surpassing both Russia and Saudi Arabia in crude oil production.”
Tom Craddick, the former state House speaker, also lauded the focus on energy. “We all have to make difficult choices each day as we navigate this recovery. One thing you and I can do is support President Trump today and in the future,” he wrote.
A senior White House aide emphasized the energy agenda over the trip’s political dimensions.
“The president loves Texas, the people and the spirit and just everything that makes Texas what it is, which is a love of freedom and liberty and less government and lower taxes,” the aide said. “He also has such a passion for the energy industry and understand what it means to the average Texan, the average American, whether it’s the workers in Pennsylvania or Ohio or North Dakota.”
Texas battleground
Trump’s relatively narrow victory over Hillary Clinton in Texas reflected the state’s political evolution and shifting demographics.
Two years later, Cruz barely skated past Beto O’Rourke, his 2.6% margin the worst showing for any statewide GOP candidate since 1994, the last time a Democrat won any statewide contest.
With suburban women turning against him and disapproval over his handling of the pandemic surging, poll after poll has shown Texas slipping further away from Trump.
“We’re going to turn the direction the entire country from right here in Texas when we flip the Senate, and deliver 38 electoral votes to Joe Biden who, by the way, is two points ahead of Trump,” M.J. Hegar, the Democratic nominee against Sen. John Cornyn, said Tuesday during a panel hosted by Emily’s List, a group that backs women candidates who support abortion rights.
A Morning Consult poll released Monday night showed Biden leading in Texas 47-45 – a dramatic shift from two months ago, when the same poll showed the president ahead by 7 points.
A Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler poll released July 12 showed Biden leading by 5 points, the same weekend a CBS/YouGov poll found a statistical tie, with Trump leading 46-45.
“We’re many points up in Texas,” Trump insisted the next day. “Fake news. Phony polls.”
Publicly available polling belies that boast, however.
A Quinnipiac University poll released last Wednesday showed Biden leading 45-44. In early June, the same pollsters had Trump leading by 1 point.
Trump’s new campaign manager, Bill Sepien, hired to pull the effort out of the doldrums, dared Biden last Friday to make a play for Texas. Texas Democrats accused him of “false bravado” in light of the polls.