President Trump’s reelection bid hinges on his handling of coronavirus pandemic

The coronavirus pandemic has changed the nature of the 2020 presidential contest, but not the face. November’s election has always been a referendum on President Donald Trump. Now, instead of a broad look at the pros and cons of his tenure, voters will largely judge him on his handling of the pandemic and its impact on the economy.

“It all depends on the length of our memory. It may not be possible to know the dynamic until we see how this very strange story ends,” said conservative talk radio host Mark Davis.

Davis said that Trump would benefit if the country returns to normal this summer. That would mean Americans would slowly begin to talk about and participate in things not related to the coronavirus fight. If that doesn’t happen, Trump could face a headwind to reelection.

“If something goes horribly wrong, then that will be a problem,” Davis said.

Trump has driven the news coverage since he launched his presidential campaign in 2015. Now, his daily news conferences on the fight to curb the pandemic have made him ubiquitous with Americans at a time when they are forced into their homes.

Early data reflects a so-far, so-good moment for Trump. A recent Gallup poll found Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis by a 60% to 38% margin. Ninety-four percent of Republicans, 60% of independents and 27% of Democrats approve of his response.

That Americans — at this point — approved of Trump’s handling of the pandemic is not surprising.

From Franklin D. Roosevelt’s handling of the Great Depression and World War II to George W. Bush’s stewardship after the 9/11 terror attacks, presidents typically enjoy a polling bump in times of crisis, when Americans rally around each other and their leader.

Often a controversial figure, Trump for the most part has projected well at his news briefings, and the relief package approved by Congress should help his standing with voters.

But the heat of a presidential campaign will force Trump to address criticisms of his job performance, particularly his response in the early stages of the pandemic.

Former Vice President Joe Biden and Democrats will use paid media to blast Trump for initially not taking seriously the coronavirus threat. He called it a “hoax,” but later said he was talking about criticism of him from Democrats.

Many health experts say the nation is behind where it should be in testing residents for the virus, which has resulted in a dearth of necessary data to establish where the fight against the virus stands.

Trump has argued that he inherited a broken system that his team had to retool.

Whatever the case, Biden will try to put the country’s pain and suffering from the coronavirus on Trump’s initial response to the outbreak. Last week he released a video criticizing Trump’s response to the crisis.

Democratic strategist Lisa Turner said Trump’s message has been inconsistent and sometimes steeped in politics. She said she’s not surprised that polls show Americans approve of his handling of the crisis.

“I’ve never rooted for Trump more in my life for him to get this right,” Turner said. “But he’s not getting it right and I don’t think those poll numbers will hold.”

But Biden has immediate problems.

While Trump is beamed daily to voters across the country, Biden has been far less visible.

Other Democrats have captured the attention of base voters, including Govs. Gavin Newsom of California and Andrew Cuomo of New York.

Cuomo has been so inspiring that some Democrats are pondering whether to draft him as a 2020 presidential candidate. While that won’t happen and doesn’t represent the majority view, it reflects the problem facing Biden.

This week he began to have more virtual meetings and interactions with voters. He did some interviews, but not enough to counter the earned media enjoyed by Trump.

At some point the nation will get a handle on the virus and the focus will return to the presidential campaign and the conventions of both parties.

That’s when Biden hopes to make the case that he’s a better choice in times of crisis. And Biden’s opponents will argue that he’s a bad risk.

Of course, no one really knows what the mechanics of a 2020 presidential campaign will look like, particularly if social distancing policies are still in place.

The coronavirus has changed our way of life. It could also change our politics.