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AUSTIN — The Texas Democratic Party will announce Monday that it is doubling down on its vote-by-mail campaign with a goal of reaching 1.7 million potential mail voters by the end of the month — the most for an election cycle in the state party’s history.
To reach that goal, party officials will launch an effort to send out more than 815,000 vote-by-mail applications by the end of August to those already eligible to receive the ballots — like those over 65 or people with disabilities.
Those mail ballot applications may play a major role in this year’s crucial elections, as voters weigh whether voting in person is safe during the COVID-19 pandemic. Democratic officials said voting by mail is the safest way to vote and cast their campaign as an effort to keep Texans safe in the absence of action by the Republican-dominated state government.
“Now more than ever, to have our seniors vote safely, voting by mail is the best option for them,” Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party said in a statement. “This historic investment in our Vote-by-Mail program is the next phase of our plan to win the state of Texas. We will continue to register new voters, expand the electorate, fight back against all Republican attempts to suppress the vote, and harness the energy and enthusiasm that we’ve seen across the state.”
Recent polling has Democrats believing Texas is in play at the presidential level. They want their presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, to be the first Democratic candidate to win the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976. They also are making a push to win the Texas House for the first time since 2001.
Mail voting could be key.
The practice does not usually give either party an advantage, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. But with more than 140,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 and the pandemic wreaking havoc on the economy, an application to vote by mail could entice an otherwise apathetic voter to cast her ballot.
“We know from decades of research in voting that if you reduce the cost of voting for people, they’ll be more likely to vote,” Rottinghaus said. “It makes their job easier and ultimately that’s the goal.”
For Democrats, getting those mail ballot applications out three months ahead of the election sends a signal to voters that elections need to be top of mind and preparations need to be made, Rottinghaus said.
While research shows that younger voters, as well as Black and Latino voters — all demographics the Democrats are targeting — have their mail ballot applications rejected at higher rates or do not return them, the party is looking to seize on a captive audience during the pandemic.
“This early, it’s a stand to get people to return the ballots early on,” he added. “Ultimately, the Democratic party is worried that they’re going to lose an opportunity to turn Texas blue with Trump at the top of the ticket. This will be their last chance to harness anti-Trump fervor. The party doesn’t want to make mistakes and wants to do everything they can to get favorable ballots back in.”
Since April, Democrats have fought to allow every voter in the state to cast a ballot by mail. But despite early wins in state and federal court, appeals courts have said the state is not required to expand mail voting.
Democrats are still fighting a federal lawsuit at the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, and have asked the U.S. Supreme Court to take up their case before the November elections. But with conservative majorities in both of those courts, Democrats could be hedging their bets with their new mail ballot campaign, which is targeted at those who already qualify to vote by mail.
“This will be a base-versus-base election, so Democrats will want to mop up every vote they can get and mail balloting is a way to plan ahead to ensure that at least some people are getting their ballots back in,” Rottinghaus said.
And if the courts do rule their way, Democrats will already have infrastructure in place to quickly send out more mail ballots, he said.
Voting rights advocates said the mail voting push is welcome news and admonished state leaders for not taking similar action before.
“This effort by Texas Democrats is great to see but the fact that they have to be the ones to do it really underscores how little Texas is doing to encourage voting,” Anthony Gutierrez, executive director of government watchdog group Common Cause Texas said in a statement. “While many other states are stepping up and taking action in all kinds of ways to help people vote during this pandemic, Texas continues to do little to nothing.”
State Republican leaders have adamantly opposed any mail voting expansion, saying a quick expansion would open the door to voter fraud and other technical problems with the voting infrastructure. Attorney General Ken Paxton has argued that expanding mail voting would be a judicial overstep that would infringe on the state Legislature’s right to conduct elections within its jurisdiction.
Last month, Gov. Greg Abbott expanded the early voting period for the November election by six days, giving voters nearly a week longer to cast their ballot. He similarly extended the early voting period for the primary runoffs.
But most voting is still done on Election Day and voting rights advocates fear that crowded polling locations could spread the virus.
Democrats are more likely than Republicans to want to vote by mail, Rottinghaus said. But a big toss-up could be the state’s independent voters.
“Independents are weird bunch in Texas,” he said. “They tend to lean conservative, so it could mean that it benefits Republicans. But given where things are now with Trump and Democrats running strong candidates that are well-funded, it could mean that they go for Democrats.”
Vote-by-mail qualifications
Currently, voters are eligible for mail ballots if they are:
–65 years of age or older
–will be away from the county during an election period
–members of the military
–have a disability or sickness that prevents them from going to the polls