Thunderstorm chances increase ahead of ‘less humid’ front

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — Rain chances will increase Thursday as an upper level low moves through central Texas.

These thunderstorms will be slow movers, so a quick 1″ of rain will be possible in spots. It now looks like this upper level low will move away quicker, so by sunrise Friday most of the rain should be gone. At that time, a front will blow in from the northeast with significantly drier air. We have high confidence this humidity break will last through the weekend. It will still be hot with highs around 90, but we’ll catch a few dry mornings with lows in the upper 60s.

On Sunday a disturbance in the southwest Gulf will be pushing tropical moisture back toward Texas. Chances for rain will be rising early next week as this area of low pressure continues to push moisture toward the I-10 corridor. The best chance of rain will be in our coastal counties. The National Hurricane Center now gives this low a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm. The water is very warm over the western Gulf, the wind shear is light, and the Bay of Campeche is notorious for rapidly spinning up small tropical weather systems. Because of the weak steering currents, the track forecast will be challenging for this potential storm, so stay aware and informed in the days ahead as we try to get a better handle of what it will do.