Could 2020 see more tornadoes than normal? One forecast says, yes

This year could see more twisters than usual, AccuWeather’s 2020 tornado forecast predicts. But North Texas meteorologists are skeptical about that outlook.

AccuWeather’s forecast predicts between 1,350 and 1,450 tornadoes this year, slightly more than the average of 1,253 tornadoes that touchdown annually in the U.S.

AccuWeather is ballparking the figure this year, compared to last year when it predicted 1,075 tornadoes. In all, there were 1,422 tornadoes in the U.S. in 2019, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.

The forecast calls for an especially active March across the South, a normal April and slightly more tornadoes than normal in May.

But not all meteorologists agree. KXAS-TV (NBC5) chief meteorologist Rick Mitchell said he’s not a “big fan” of long-range tornado forecasts.

“They seem to be more about getting clicks than actual usable information,” Mitchell said. “What I have found is that while there are some connections between certain patterns and severe weather frequency, those connections are pretty flimsy.”

Mitchell also said he’s concerned a forecast like AccuWeather’s would not be properly understood by the public.

“For example, a forecast of above normal tornadoes may lead to someone believing there will be tornadoes dropping out of the sky every day,” Mitchell said. “Likewise, a forecast of below normal tornadoes may lead to apathy.”

WEATHER

What to do during a tornado warning if you’re in a house, apartment, office or car?

What to do during a tornado warning if you’re in a house, apartment, office or car?

BY JESUS JIMENEZ

National Weather Service meteorologist Juan Hernandez said long-term forecasting is hard enough, much less predicting the number of storms or tornadoes in a given year.

“For the next few days, we have a lot of math and computing power to figure out, for example, ‘will it rain between this part of the day?’” Hernandez said.

For forecasts beyond that, meteorologists look at trends and patterns like an El Niño or a La Niña, Hernandez said. Even if it was possible to predict the number of storms in a year, Hernandez said, “Not all storms produce tornadoes.”

What matters, Hernandez and Mitchell agree, is being prepared for severe weather situations.

WEATHER

See what the path of Dallas’ EF-3 tornado looks like from space

BY JESUS JIMENEZ

“Don’t worry about a forecast,” Mitchell said. “Focus your attention on making sure you are prepared by having a severe weather plan in place. Know where you will take shelter and practice your plan with your family. By doing that, you will have taken actual steps to have a safe severe weather season.”

Last year, North Texas had 40 tornadoes. Ten of them fell on one night in October, including an EF-3 that tore a 15-mile path from northwest Dallas into Richardson, with winds of up to 140 mph.

So far this year, North Texas has had five tornadoes, including a short-lived EF-0 on Jan. 10 that traveled two miles through Irving.

“Whether we’re going to have a lot of tornadoes or not doesn’t matter,” Hernandez said. “Tornado season in North Texas runs from January 1st through December 31st.”