How coronavirus will change the 2020 election

Something strange happened in the last few weeks. Between securing toilet paper, scouring epidemiological curves, and homeschooling kids during a global pandemic, I almost forgot it was an election year. It actually was a nice break from our polarized politics.

Then Sen. Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race. Sanders was congratulated for endorsing Joe Biden within a week of his exit, unlike holding out for months to endorse Hillary Clinton in 2016. Personally, I wondered why he stayed in the race as long as he did, presumably accepting donations from cash-strapped voters as the pandemic roared to life, despite near impossible delegate math.

After a crowded primary, the 2020 presidential matchup has been set: Biden vs. President Donald Trump.

To the extent that polls can be believed, Biden as the nominee bodes well for Democrats. Biden polls ahead of Trump in key states like Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, according to Real Clear Politics data, whereas Sanders had lagged behind. Recent polls show Biden outpacing Trump in the general election as well.

That said, reality seems to be changing by the day, and the pandemic has overturned what’s normal or expected. The trajectory of the coronavirus and the administration’s response are likely to drive what happens in November. While elections tend to be about a basket of issues — the economy, health care, climate, immigration, etc. — in a matter of weeks it’s boiled down to something previously unimaginable: who we want in charge of a pandemic.

Presumably, a national crisis could work in favor of the incumbent, providing an opportunity to demonstrate reassurance, command, unity and acumen. President George W. Bush saw his approval ratings touch 90% following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. But Trump’s approval ratings have dropped as the coronavirus pandemic has advanced. In a Morning Consult survey in April, 49% of Americans disapproved of Trump’s coronavirus response, 18 points worse than last month.

Trump’s advisers may attribute the drop in polls to the pain of the economic shuttering, but the death counts are also increasing, 1 in 5 Americans knows someone who tested positive for COVID-19, and a massive stimulus package was passed. One wonders if his Twitter habits like #FireFauci, continued lack of supplies and mismanagement at the early stages of the crisis are also to blame.

Much also depends on what the virus curve ends up looking like. If infections crest in late spring and early summer and then settle down, if the economy gradually reopens, if there’s a v-shaped recovery or a swoosh, Trump may well declare victory over the foreign virus and be rewarded in the election.

Most Americans will be ready to move beyond this tragic period in our history, and many communities are likely to be spared the depth of illness lived in New York City. But if the pandemic returns in the fall without adequate medical infrastructure, monitoring and testing in place (and that part is critical, because even if the virus returns it could yet be another chance to display competence and command), well then that would underscore the public’s fears of incompetence and disorder in the White House. The election might as well be handed to Biden on a silver platter.

While the trajectory of COVID-19 is of primary importance, two other factors should be watched. First, Biden runs to the left and becomes too far of a stretch for moderates and center-right Republicans. If the election is made into a stark ideological battle, not one of prudent governance, then all bets are off even if the virus is back in full force.

No doubt, Biden will feel tremendous pressure from the progressive wing of the party to represent their interests, after they got within a hair’s breadth of seeing Sanders or Sen. Elizabeth Warren as the nominee. There will be pressure on the former vice president to pick a progressive running mate. There will be pressure to push as far left as possible on the policy agenda and messaging — pushing ahead on sweeping plans for the climate, abortion rights, free college for wealthy kids, or more burdensome business mandates.

A leftward pivot would hurt Biden’s chances, as the vast majority of the country does not support progressive proposals such as Medicare for All once the specifics are spelled out, like higher taxes and no private health care insurance. Now’s not the time for a political revolution. It’s time for steadiness and security.

The third wild card is what happens with voting. Will it be possible to vote in person in the fall, or will the sickness be back? Will there be more widespread mail-in voting? How easy will it be? Much of this depends on steps that are taken now.

The Trump administration seems to live in the shadow of losing the popular vote and Russian interference in the last election. Trump officials could inoculate themselves from similar charges by being serious about contingency planning for voting should the virus prohibit going to the polls in the fall. They should ensure that any American who wants to vote can vote. (And that anyone who wants to have a test can have a test, for that matter.)

If there’s any silver lining to the pandemic, it’s that a level of seriousness has been injected in 2020. It’s not the time for sweeping ideological overhauls or reality TV press conferences. Politics as entertainment was so 2019. Now is the time for trust, competence, reassurance and command of the situation. This is what voters deserved all along.

The stakes for November have gone up considerably in recent weeks. The circus is no longer as entertaining without the bread.