Even with the fallout over the winter storm that left millions of Texans without power, water or both, Gov. Greg Abbott has a tight grip on the keys to the governor’s mansion.

His name recognition is higher than any politician in the state, and he bolsters his popularity with a formidable campaign fund that could grow to $80 million or more, if he needs it.

Abbott, who is serving his second term as governor, is the rare Texas politician with a strong organization powered by staffers and volunteers who remain in place whether he’s on the ballot or helping other candidates.

But as indomitable as Abbott is, it looks like he’ll get a significant challenge in the 2022 Republican primary. The prospects range from a minor irritation to a serious threat. The dynamic will evolve after the legislative session, when we know if Abbott is successful in implementing his agenda items, including reforming the state’s power delivery system.

“We’re in a strong position, but we’re not going to take anything for granted,” said Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief political consultant.

Abbott has taken some hits. The state’s response to the winter storm was unacceptable to most Texans and the governor is in change of the state’s emergency response. His handling of the pandemic has been slammed by Democrats and the hard right.

Challenges from the right

As Carney prepares Abbott for a reelection campaign, at least two candidates are considering making a primary challenge from the governor’s right flank.

Former state Sen. Don Huffines of Dallas has been gauging support for months. Several people with knowledge of his plans say an announcement could be made in April.

Here’s how I know Huffines is seriously considering challenging Abbott. He didn’t return my phone call asking for comment. And his return text message also ignored the question of his candidacy. It sounds like a man who doesn’t want to step on his upcoming rollout, or maybe he’s not finished with his deliberations.

Huffines, who in 2018 lost his Senate seat to Dallas Democrat Nathan Johnson, has criticized Abbott for closing down businesses in order to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. Last May Huffines told me he was not a 2022 candidate for governor after taking a swipe at Abbott.

“He showed extremely poor leadership in the whole process,” Huffines said of the governor’s handling of closing and reopening businesses during the pandemic.

Huffines hasn’t stop his criticism of Abbott, and that hasn’t gone unnoticed by the governor’s campaign team.

“He’s been going around telling everybody that he’s announcing his campaign in April,” said Carney, who didn’t appear too worried.

There could be other primary challenges to Abbott.

Texas Republican Party Chairman Allen West has also been mentioned as a primary opponent for Abbott, though the former Florida congressman is also said to be considering other options, including a campaign for attorney general against incumbent Ken Paxton. In Texas, you don’t have to be a lawyer to serve as attorney general.

West has also been critical of Abbott’s handling of the pandemic, and political observers are certain that he has aspirations for a statewide office in Texas.

Abbott’s standing, however, won’t be seriously tested by largely unknown players from the GOP’s hard right, unless it’s somebody like powerful Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who has said he’s not interested in being governor.

The McConaughey factor

The more intriguing question is whether actor Matthew McConaughey runs for governor as a populist Republican.

McConaughey has teased a run for governor and is having a dialogue on various issues with voters across the state. He has yet to reveal which party banner he would chose to carry, if he challenged Abbott.

It would be hard for the Academy Award winning actor to cast himself as a hardcore conservative.

But he could sell a Republican populism much like Donald Trump did in 2016, though the former president had a much stronger following than McConaughey has.

McConaughey told the Austin American-Statesman that he’s “aggressively centric.”

“Look, I’m a meet-you-in-the-middle man,” he said. “When I say ‘aggressively centric,’ that sometimes gets parceled over there with ‘Oh, that’s a shade of gray, a compromise.’ “

Democrats are also trying to field a candidate. Operatives hope former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke will challenge Abbott. The former Senate and presidential candidate says he’s considering a campaign for governor.

A challenge to Abbott from any direction depends on Abbott’s performance between now and the December filing deadline.

If he has a successful legislative session, the warmth of the summer could cause memories that Texas wasn’t ready for the brutal winter storm to fade.

By not holding industry and state officials accountable for the debacle, Abbott could leave the window open for a challenger.

Unless he totally tanks, it’s going to take a unique candidate to beat Abbott and capture the fancy of Texas voters.