2022 election dates hinge on how fast Texas lawmakers get redistricting bill to Gov. Greg Abbott

AUSTIN — The dates for the 2022 Texas primaries rely on a series of ifs and buts.

Many of you remember what former Dallas Cowboys star quarterback and SMU standout Don Meredith used to say: “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas.”

Instead of candy and nuts, a Merry Christmas in this scenario occurs if Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signs into law a bill that redraws the state’s legislative and election boundaries by Nov. 15. That would trigger a March primary election date, with runoffs in May. It would also mean avoiding the dreaded summer election, where turnout is guaranteed to be lower, and underdogs have a chance to rise up.

“What this does is make sure you have a mechanism that you keep your March to May primary and runoff, without running in the summer,” state Rep. Todd Hunter, R-Corpus Christi, said last week before the House approved a bill that sets 2022 election dates.

The problem for Texas politicos is that there’s no guarantee a redistricting bill will be signed by the governor on or before Nov. 15. The 2022 election calendar bill, approved by the House last week after being developed in the Senate, outlines three sets of potential election dates, with the least-preferred option resulting in a May primary and July runoff.

The very sound of summer runoffs likely sent chills through the House chamber. No incumbent facing a scrappy challenger with support from their party’s activist voters wants a dead-of-summer election.

Here’s the background.

Because of a delay in getting the census information needed to redraw legislative boundaries, lawmakers couldn’t partake in the once-a-decade redistricting process. The data needed will be available to legislators on Sept. 1, and Abbott is expected to call a special session on redistricting this fall. It could occur in September or October.

If lawmakers approve bills that Abbott can sign by Nov. 15, the March 1 primary and May 24 runoff will be set. That would mean the filing period for primary candidates would start on Nov. 29 and end Dec. 13. That doesn’t give a lot of time for election officials across the state to adjust, but Hunter believes it will work.

If a bill isn’t signed by Nov. 15, a second option would have the primary occurring April 5, with the runoff on June 21. That would require Abbott signing redistricting legislation by Dec. 28. The filing period would be two weeks, from Jan. 10 through Jan. 24.

As I mentioned, the least-favorable option occurs if the above deadlines are missed and a redistricting bill is signed by Feb. 7. That would create a May 24 primary and a June 26 runoff. The filing period would run from Feb. 21 through March 7.

Abbott has considerable influence on when the elections will occur, since he’ll have to sign the redistricting bill.

Hunter, who is chairman of the House Redistricting Committee, said that won’t be a problem.

“My view is knowing the governor, because I’ve known him a long time, I don’t think he would delay,” Hunter said. “He would want to do this as quick and effectively as possible.”

There’s little room for error.

In 2003, House and Senate Democrats broke quorum to delay a redistricting bill that eventually became law and led to the wipe out of a large swath of their party’s congressional delegation in subsequent elections.

House Democrats, who this month just ended a 38-day quorum break to stall a controversial elections bill, had been weighing the possibility of a quorum break during the redistricting session, though that’s now unlikely.

Incumbents want a March election because summer primaries can be unpredictable.

In July state Rep. Jake Ellzey came from behind to beat Republican activist Susan Wright for the District 6 special election to fill the unexpired Congressional District 6 term of Ron Wright, who died in February after battling COVID-19 and cancer. Susan Wright, the widow of the late congressman, enjoyed the backing of former President Donald Trump and had a comfortable win in the May primary.

In 2012, former Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst got 45 percent of the vote in a large primary field for U.S. Senate. But Ted Cruz, the second place finisher in the primary, crushed him in the July runoff, when many of Dewhurst’s supporters were vacationing in cooler climates.

In 2022, Abbott is the frontrunner is a primary that also features former state Sen. Donald Huffines of Dallas and former Texas GOP Chairman Allen West of Garland.

Though Abbott is confident he can win an election any month of the year, he doesn’t want the aggravation of a summer runoff.