When Mike Collier announced in April he was exploring another candidacy for lieutenant governor, he had a clear path to the Democratic Party’s nomination and a subsequent rematch with Republican incumbent Dan Patrick.

On Monday, when Collier officially launched his campaign by starting a multi-city swing through Texas, he did so knowing that he’ll now have a formidable rival on the Democratic Party trail.

Matthew Dowd, the former adviser to President George W. Bush, is running against Collier for their party’s nomination. An author, political strategist and pundit, Dowd is expected to raise significant campaign cash and outdo Collier in the race earned media, which is priceless publicity in a political campaign.

An undaunted Collier says he’s confident that he’ll return as his party’s standard bearer. He says he’ll then rid Texas of Patrick in the 2022 general election.

“It really does change much. I always expected that there would be somebody that would put their hand up because we’ve gotten so close,” Collier said of Dowd during an interview

In 2018 Patrick beat Collier by five percentage points. Though he lost, he’s treating the effort as a building block for 2022.

“One of the reasons Democrats don’t win is because it’s often a one-and-done proposition,” Collier said, adding that a candidate learns from unsuccessful statewide races.

Collier looks fondly on his 2018 race. He points out that he outpaced Democratic Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke in most Texas counties, though O’Rourke garnered more votes than any Democrat on the ticket.

Republican incumbent Ted Cruz beat O’Rourke by 2.6 percentage points. He’s now a potential Democratic Party candidate for governor against incumbent Republican Greg Abbott.

Jason Stanford, who was the general consultant for Collier’s 2014 unsuccessful campaign for Texas comptroller, said Collier is facing a big primary challenge.

“Collier has earned a lot of goodwill with Democratic activists and Matthew Dowd, so far, has not,” Stanford said. “He can explain a balance sheet to people in a way where they realize how they’re getting hosed by state government. That’s his strength.”

But Stanford said Collier had a tough primary road in front of him.

“The race is obviously more challenging,” Stanford said. “Matthew Dowd has a national profile, and I can’t imagine that he would be doing this if he didn’t have commitments.”

Small-town focus

Collier says he can unlock the Democratic Party vote in Texas’s small towns, which coupled with the urban/suburban vote would be a recipe for victory.

Collier, a 60-year-old Houston-area accountant, was one of Joe Biden’s exas campaign advisers. For his campaign for lieutenant governor, Collier has hired several former Biden campaign staffers and Biden’s campaign pollster, ALG Research. Collier’s campaign also includes Crystal Perkins, the former Texas Democratic Party executive director who was Biden’s finance director for a Texas and the region.

“I’ve got probably the best team that has ever been assembled by a Democrat in Texas,” Collier said.

If that’s true, he’ll need it. Collier’s biggest challenge is to convince casual Democratic voters that he has the ability, game plan and eventual star power to beat Patrick.

A Texas Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race since 1994. Amid all the losing, some Democrats shied away from running multiple campaigns for the same seat. Others became perennial candidates.

For in-district races, some Democrats ran several unsuccessful campaigns, which resulted in gratitude from party leaders, but not much else. When those districts were ready to flip, the candidates that ran and lost in earlier, much difficult contests were pushed aside by more popular names with better financial support.

Collier has been telling anyone who will listen that Patrick is on the verge of defeat, and he’s spent years helping build the party in order to make that happen. But Dowd’s entry into the race threatens to make Collier—at best—a prophet, not the nominee.

“Collier has support with the party activists and operatives and the people that really pay attention,” said Democratic Party political consultant Colin Strother. “Outside of that, no one really knows who he is.”

Strother said Dowd could become a media darling that will raise lots of money and push all other Democratic contenders in the backdrop.

“Because earned media is such a critical component of a statewide campaign, Collier will be at a disadvantage,” Strother said. “Collier doesn’t appear to have the ability to get that kind of earned media. He’s plugged into the insider crowd, but that’s not who decides elections.”