Texas House to pass map that seals GOP majority, critics say it bypasses minority population growth

Texas lawmakers on Tuesday are expected to approve new legislative boundaries that cement Republican control in the state House, but voting rights advocates say the plan overlooks the impact of minority voters that have powered the Lone Star State’s population explosion.

The proposal set for passage in the Texas House was developed by Corpus Christi Republican Todd Hunter and it protects Republican and Democratic House incumbents. The plan has been described by some as a status quo map that would slightly increase GOP clout in the Legislature. But critics point out that the existing Texas legislative boundaries are already severely gerrymandered and that the new lines should acknowledge that minority residents make up 3.8 million of the 4 million people that moved to Texas over the past decade.

Democrats insist that instead of creating more minority opportunity districts, the plan would reduce the number of Hispanic majority districts from 33 to 30, and slash the number of majority Black districts from seven to four. Black voters, however, can control districts where they don’t hold the majority, so no incumbent Black Democratic lawmakers are at risk of losing their seats to a Republican. Those numbers, according to state Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas, are based on citizen voting age population estimates.

“Despite 95% of the growth being communities of color, we get a map that increases the number of Anglo majority seats,” said state Rep. Rafael Anchia, D-Dallas and member of the House Redistricting Committee.

Hunter, chairman of the House Redistricting Committee, has disagreed with that analysis. At a House Redistricting hearing on his bill earlier this month, he said his proposal would create three additional districts where people of color make up the majority–two in which Hispanic residents make up the majority and one with Black residents as the majority. The plan, Hunter said, would also developed a coalition district for Asian residents.

The Corpus Christi lawmaker said his analysis of the map was formed by using voting age population. Many experts prefer to use citizen voting age population to determine minority opportunity districts because that metric better forecasts voting strength.

Voting rights activists contend 42 majority Hispanic districts can be drawn without protecting incumbents. With incumbency protection as a factor, advocates say the new maps should have at least four to six additional Hispanic majority seats.

Anchia said he would offer an amendment to improve the maps, one of 69 legislative suggestions on tap for the floor debate. Still, the plan is expected to cruise through the Republican-controlled House.

“Tuesday is going to be about creating the record, and then we’ll have to litigate,” Anchia said, foreshadowing what will be a lengthy federal court battle over the House, Senate and congressional maps that will be passed by the Legislature and signed by Gov. Greg Abbott.

Most Republicans in the Legislature, citing the likelihood of lawsuits, are not commenting on their redistricting proposals aside from what’s being said publicly at legislative meetings.

Lawmakers are trying to approve congressional, state Senate and state House boundaries for the next 10 years before the legislative session expires on Oct. 19. The Senate has approved congressional and Senate plans that also need a greenlight from the House. For their part, House lawmakers are expected to pass the Senate boundary proposal approved by Texas senators. But they still have to hold a hearing on a House congressional plan, then approve it before next week’s deadline.

House members are expected to make changes to the Senate congressional plan, which would require the matter to be settled in a conference committee of members from both chambers. Because of the time that would take, the buzz in Austin is that Abbott will have to call a fourth special session to deal with redistricting and other agenda items that still linger. Abbott on Monday added another item to consider — a ban prohibiting businesses from requiring COVID-19 vaccines.

Meanwhile, House lawmakers on Tuesday are expected to give initial approval to Hunter’s proposal.

In North Texas, the plan makes several significant changes to current boundaries, but doesn’t disturb the balance of power.

Tarrant County Republican incumbents will see their districts fortified, with one exception. Incumbent Republican Jeff Cason, one of two GOP lawmakers who voted against Beaumont Republican Dade Phelan as speaker, would be placed in a district that leans heavily toward a Democratic Party candidate.

But that potential flip would be offset by the Denton County seat now held by Democrat Michelle Beckley that GOP map drawers have changed to favor a Republican candidate.

Republican lawmakers are also proposing adjustments to protect veteran GOP lawmakers Matt Shaheen and Jeff Leach, both of Plano. Their Collin County districts had become electoral battlegrounds over the last two election cycles. But an amendment to the original proposal developed by Rep. Craig Goldman, R-Fort Worth, makes those districts stronger for a Republican candidate.

In moving to protect Shaheen and Leach, the GOP plan makes the Collin County district represented by the retiring McKinney Republican Scott Sanford less Republican. In 2020 President Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in the area by a 55% to 44% margin, signaling that a Democratic Party candidate can win the seat. But in previous cycles the margins have been closer.

The power dynamic would remain the same in heavily Democratic Dallas County. Republicans moved to protect incumbent GOP lawmakers Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button. While they are slightly favored to win in next year’s midterm elections under the proposed boundaries, holding their seats could be difficult as demographic shifts continue to make Dallas County a difficult place for Republican candidates to win.

Minority lawmakers have complained that the new maps unnecessarily displace or pack minority voters into different districts. District 100, an area once represented by Dallas Mayor Eric Johnson and now led by Democrat Jasmine Crockett, would lose Black neighborhoods but gain white voters. Democrat Toni Rose’s District 110 becomes more Hispanic, while losing Black voters. And some of the Black neighborhoods shed from Crockett’s district, including the historic Joppy area founded by emancipated residents, were moved into District 104, which is represented by Dallas Democrat Jessica González.

Crockett has said she will seek to overturn the House proposal in court.

Outside of Dallas-Fort Worth, El Paso Democratic Reps. Evelina “Lina” Ortega and Claudia Ordaz Perez are paired in the proposed House District 77. El Paso lost a House seat because of population trends, while Fort Bend County picked up a seat that was placed in a district where Asians represent about a third of the voters. But that seat could also be won by a black candidate.

The El Paso Democrats that were paired–Ortega and Perez–participated in the quorum breaks Democrats staged over the summer to stall the elections bill. Unlike some of their Democratic counterparts from El Paso, they didn’t break ranks and return to Texas.

The House map proposal also paired GOP Reps. Jacey Jetton of Richmond, and Phil Stephenson of Wharton in the proposed House District 26 and Kyle Biedermann of Fredericksburg and Terry Wilson of Marble Falls in the new House District 19.