Paxton vs. Bush for AG, race to replace Eddie Bernice Johnson highlight Texas runoffs

It’s understandable to feel like the Texas primaries are taking forever to finish. The first round of the elections was March 1, far removed from the May 24 runoff date.

The wait is almost over.

On Monday, early voting for the Texas runoffs gets underway and will extend through May 20.

After the May 24 regular election, we’ll know the nominees for statewide, congressional and local political contests.

Most primary races were determined in March, but there are still several high-profile elections to be determined.

Here a look at how some of those races stand.

GOP race for attorney general

Incumbent Republican Ken Paxton is seeking his third term as attorney general. He’s saddled with a 2015 indictment on securities fraud, along with an FBI investigation into bribery and corruption allegations by several former staffers.

For some politicians, those legal woes would be too much weight for a campaign to bear. For Paxton, who is in a runoff against Land Commissioner George P. Bush, it hasn’t been a problem.

He topped the field March 1 against Bush, the second-place finisher, as well as former Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert of Tyler.

While not winning his race without a runoff could be viewed as a minor setback, Paxton, who has former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, hasn’t been pushed hard this primary season. He’s ducked debates and forums with Bush and has not spent the type of money you would expect in such a high-profile race, and he’s still had a double-digit lead in the four most recent polls by  and the University of Texas at Tyler.

In the most recent poll released Sunday, the incumbent’s lead is now 6 percentage points (41-35, which is within the poll’s margin of error).

I expect Paxton to allot some of his campaign cash, perhaps $1.5 million, on a campaign television ad buy for precautionary reasons. But like most political observers, he believes the nomination is a cinch.

For his part, Bush is trying to finish strong. He’s recently taken hard-right stands on immigration and border security. He has said that he hopes to overturn a long-standing court decision that provides free public education for undocumented immigrant children. And he’s called for Texas to declare a border “invasion” so state troopers and National Guard members can begin turning migrants back to Mexico.

Bush’s tougher stance on immigration and migrant issues comes as most primary voters don’t appear to care about his core campaign message that Paxton is damaged goods who could be beaten by a Democrat in November.

Democratic race for attorney general

The primary runoff for attorney general between former ACLU lawyer Rochelle Garza and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski should be considered the second-most-important race for Texas Democrats looking to end a 28-year drought in winning statewide contests.

In theory, Paxton’s legal woes make him vulnerable in a general election. That means Democrats need to put forward an opponent who can take advantage of Paxton’s problems and win.

Garza and Jaworski won’t be as well funded as the GOP nominee, whether it’s Paxton or Bush. And they lack name recognition across the state. Still, Democrats must be motivated to pick the candidate who will make the strongest showing or pull the upset.

Jaworki was the first Democrat in the race, while Garza jumped in late last year and gained momentum. She beat Jaworski by a 43%-20% margin to finish first in March and led 35%-20% in The News and UT-Tyler’s poll.

Democratic race for lieutenant governor

Incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has firm control of the Texas Senate and influences legislation more than any other person in the Lone Star State.

Democrats will try to derail Patrick from a third term with either Houston-area accountant Mike Collier or state Rep. Michelle Beckley of Carrollton.

Collier was the 2018 nominee against Patrick. He lost that race by just over 5 percentage points, though Patrick didn’t mount a serious campaign. In 2014, Collier ran unsuccessfully for Texas comptroller.

Whether it’s the candidates’ lack of resources or the voters’ lack of interest, this contest has been a mostly sleepy affair. A whopping 44% of Democrats who responded to The News and UT-Tyler’s poll said they weren’t sure who to back.

Beckley led among all racial-ethnic groups, including by 33%-18% among Latinos, the poll found. She perked up this month after a draft U.S. Supreme Court opinion that would strike down Roe vs. Wade was leaked,

If Collier can’t have a strong showing against Beckley, who is making her first run for statewide office, it won’t bode well for the general election.

Race to replace U.S. Rep. Johnson in District 30

In March, state Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Dallas racked up 48% of the vote in a nine-person field to finish first in the primary to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson. But she didn’t top 50%, which would have won the race outright. Now Crockett is in a runoff against Jane Hope Hamilton, the chief of staff for U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey.

With such a strong showing in the first round, Crockett is favored to win May 24. Her biggest advantage is an endorsement from Johnson, who is expected to be active down the stretch in promoting Crockett.

The freshman state lawmaker is also backed by others, including Dallas County Commissioner Elba Garcia and prominent Dallas minister Frederick Haynes III.

But Hamilton, who finished second in March with 17% of the vote, has the backing of Ron Kirk, the former U.S. trade representative and Dallas mayor, along with Dallas County Commissioner John Wiley Price and state Sen. Royce West.

Johnson, Kirk, Price and West have been the biggest names in local Democratic politics, which makes this contest intriguing, though Hamilton is still considered the underdog.

Both women have ads running on cable television. In the first round, two super PACs controlled by cryptocurrency financiers spent about $1 million each to boost Crockett. Those groups haven’t dropped that much cash on Crockett’s behalf this time around, though they have spent considerably less money on cable and digital ads, and more could be on the way.

While Hamilton’s challenge is to turn the tide on a seemingly insurmountable deficit, Crockett has to make sure her supporters realize that the race isn’t over and that they must show up for the runoff.

North Texas House races to watch

Dallas County

In North Dallas’ District 114, John Bryant, a former congressman and state House member, is trying to make a comeback. He’s in a runoff against Dallas lawyer Alexandra Guio, who finished first in the March primary.

Guio is making her first run for elected office and says she better reflects the diverse district, which includes a younger, emerging population. Bryant has said that the era of Trump, in which the nation’s democracy is at stake, needs an experienced hand who can effectively fight against the extreme GOP agenda.

In southern Dallas’ House District 100, the Democratic establishment has rallied around first-time candidate Venton Jones against former Dallas council member Sandra Crenshaw.

In March, Crenshaw finished first, stunning the party faithful who didn’t want the perennial candidate in the Legislature.

Is the backing of Kirk, Price, West and others enough to help pull Jones to victory against Crenshaw, who has better name recognition?

Collin County

In Collin County, there are three runoffs — two for the GOP and one for Democrats.

District 70, which was redrawn to slightly favor Democrats, has a Democratic primary that features Cassandra Garcia Hernandez against Mihaela Plesa.

On the Republican side, Jamee Jolly is facing Eric Bowlin, an Army veteran and real estate professional. Jolly is the former president and CEO of the Plano Chamber of Commerce and former executive director of the Greater Dallas Restaurant Association.

Though President Joe Biden scored a comfortable win in this district over former President Donald Trump, the national head winds for Democrats in 2022 makes the area closer to purple than true blue.

In House District 61, former McKinney council member Frederick Frazier is in a GOP runoff against former Navy commander and real estate professional Paul Chabot. The winner in the heavily Republican district faces Democrat Sheena King in November.

Tarrant County

In Tarrant County, incumbent state Rep. Stephanie Klick is fighting for her political life against insurgent Republican David Lowe.

A loss by Klick would be a blow to House Speaker Dade Phelan and Republicans trying to discourage such primary challengers.