Here’s why we’re increasing rain chances and rainfall amounts

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — We are increasing not only the chance for rain in our forecast but also how much rain we could get over the next 10 days. It now looks like a weak cool front will arrive Sunday and stall out nearby, keeping healthy rain chances going for a few days next week.

First we have to get through a few more record-challenging hot days. Temperatures Thursday morning will start off in the mid 70s under a mostly clear sky. Plentiful sunshine in the afternoon will push highs back into the mid 90s with a heat index close to 100.

You’ll probably notice the sky looking hazy gray at times. It’s caused by wildfire smoke from New Mexico. Most of the smoke particles are suspended about 10,000 feet above the ground, so it shouldn’t make much of an impact on our local air quality.

When can we expect the rain to begin?
Most of us will have to wait until Sunday, but our confidence is growing that a front will deliver us needed rainfall. A late day thunderstorm is possible as early as Friday and again Saturday, but it now looks like the weak front won’t reach us until Sunday. This front could produce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. While we only have a 40% chance of rain in the forecast at this time, we will likely increase rain chances once our confidence grows in the timing of the front. This frontal boundary will linger nearby well into next week, keeping a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms around.

How much rain could we get?
At this time we expect 1-3″ to be fairly common all across Southeast Texas from Sunday through Wednesday of next week.

What else can we expect for the weekend?
Ahead of the front it will remain hot and sticky on Saturday. You can expect a near record-warm morning with lows just below 80-degrees. Temperatures will climb into the mid 90’s during the afternoon. Sunday will also start warm but finish with rain-cooled air keeping highs near average in the upper 80s.

Does this mean we might avoid the Saharan dust cloud?
We will be monitoring a Saharan dust cloud that could reach us as early as Sunday, but the rain would likely wash most of the dust away before it has any impact on our weather. You can find more information on the dust cloud and get a full tropical update at abc13.com/tropicalupdate.