Greg Abbott hits Texas TV screens, Beto O’Rourke holds back — for now

Gov. Greg Abbott is heavily outspending rival Beto O’Rourke in the television ad war for Texas governor, showcasing the impact the Republican incumbent’s stout campaign fund is having on what could be a close race.

The governor’s TV campaign for the general election kicked off in August, when kids returned to school and more people started tuning in. He spent $4.3 million to splash two ads across much of Texas, according to AdImpact, a company that tracks spending.

O’Rourke didn’t make a significant broadcast and cable buy in August, spending about $40,000 for limited airings in six markets, AdImpact reported. Instead, the campaign waited until this week to spread $8 million across the weeks leading up to Nov. 8.

Abbott’s early advantage on television highlights the disparate strategies of the campaigns. O’Rourke, who has less cash, is trying to make sure his resources are used during the race’s prime-time weeks, when people are paying closer attention to the drama that will unfold. The Democrat is also relying on his massive volunteer organization to speak to voters in their communities.

Abbott used his first two ads to reintroduce himself to voters who might feel disillusioned with the state’s future after the tumultuous events of spring and summer, including the Uvalde massacre and the Roe vs. Wade decision.

Then, when the calendar turned to September, the Abbott campaign aired its first attack ad against O’Rourke, whose first two ads were negative spots blaming Abbott for Texas’ anti-abortion laws.

“Abbott wants to get out there early and get out there loud,” said political consultant Vinny Minchillo, who developed TV ads for the presidential campaign of Mitt Romney, now a Utah senator. “He’s trying to get this thing baked, and once those support numbers are set, they are tough to move.”

Money matters

Abbott has the overall edge in total ad spending for the general election, which includes TV, radio and digital: 7.6 million compared with O’Rourke’s $3.2 million through Sept. 8, according to AdImpact.

Minchillo said Abbott’s early advantage in television spending cuts against perceptions that O’Rourke would be able to match him in fundraising. The Democrat flexed his muscle by raising close to $30 million between Feb. 20 and June 30, a record amount for a Texas campaign cycle.

But Abbott reported about $46 million in the bank, compared with O’Rourke’s $24 million on hand.

“That was always the position, that Beto would be flush with cash and be able to do what he wanted,” Minchillo said. “I’m a little surprised that there may be questions about money.”

Dave Carney, Abbott’s chief campaign strategist, said he doesn’t believe O’Rourke is cash-strapped, even as the Democrat appeals to supporters for more money to combat the governor’s media blitz.

“It’s crocodile tears, if it’s their contention that they don’t have money,” Carney said.

Meanwhile, a PAC called Coulda Been Worse has reserved $6 million in ads to presumably spend against Abbott over the next month, according to AdImpact. O’Rourke said Thursday that he didn’t know anything about the group and that they should disclose their donors.

Chris Evans, O’Rourke’s campaign spokesman, said the former El Paso congressman is on track.

“As we move into the fall, we made an initial TV ad reservation of $10 million for prime real estate on the airwaves at the very moment that more voters will be tuning in,” he said.

Carney said Abbott has about $20 million in television reservations, a total he expected would be doubled. The governor could spend at least $100 million on his reelection effort.

What the ads show

The latest poll from The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler shows Abbott with a 7-point lead over O’Rourke, unchanged for most of the campaign.

But the governor has had a challenging year, including having to lead a state rocked by the killing of 19 students and two teachers at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde.

Abbott’s job approval rating has declined since he was reelected, with 49% of voters disapproving of his performance, according to The News’ most recent poll. O’Rourke represents the toughest challenge he’s had in a long political career that includes tenures as a Texas Supreme Court justice and the state attorney general.

The governor’s ad campaign started with a 30-second spot titled “Cecilia,” which discussed the incident that put him in a wheelchair, his marriage and the adoption of his daughter, Audrey.

A second biographical ad filmed at Vernon’s Kuntry Katfish in Conroe features Abbott speaking about how his father died when he was in high school and he had to wait tables to earn money.

Abbott starting with softer, biographical ads has earned attention from political analysts. The governor is possibly the best known politician in Texas, but he says plenty of new residents and others aren’t aware of his background.

“There are a lot of people in Texas that don’t know my story,” Abbott told The News before addressing a GOP group in Fairview last week. “These ads are helping to tell that story.”

Lisa Turner, the state director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic research group, said she doesn’t buy Abbott’s explanation.

“He’s having to run all these bio spots to reintroduce himself to Texans and he’s been in office forever,” she said. “He’s trying to soften up his image because he knows he has a problem.”

In contrast, O’Rourke came out of the gate with ads critical of Abbott’s anti-abortion stance, perhaps a course correction after the 2018 Senate race.

O’Rourke has conceded that he made a mistake by not aggressively contrasting himself with Sen. Ted Cruz, who defeated him by 2.6 percentage points.

“We will be running TV ads that ensure every Texan knows exactly how Greg Abbott has failed them over the last seven years — from jacking up their energy bills and defunding their public schools to his extreme attacks on health care and his inability to keep kids safe,” Evans said.

So far, Abbott has had the advantage of being alone on the airwaves, but his challenger is finishing a tour across Texas. Such campaigning often leads to what’s described as “earned media” from news accounts of his visits.

“Beto just spent the last 50 days driving to every part of Texas to reach thousands of voters in more than 70 communities, aggressively get on the airwaves in all 20 media markets of the state, and sign up more volunteers to a grassroots army that is already 85,000 people strong,” Evans said.

But Republican consultant Matthew Langston said O’Rourke’s campaign was “flash without substance” and that Abbott’s advantage on TV was important.

“It absolutely makes a difference,” he said. “Few people are paying attention to the shock headlines and clickbait that the Beto campaign loves to push out. Abbott is now reminding voters that Texas is built to last and not built on liberal leftist lies.”

Expect the television ad fight to intensify and the dollar amounts to soar as the calendar moves closer to Nov. 8.

“We put money behind our ads and people will get the chance to see them, no matter what device they watch,” Carney said. “We’re gonna spend millions of dollars a week between now and Election Day.”