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James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water is a huge bet, as the film requires $2 billion to break even at the box office.
As per Variety, the Oscar winner told Disney and 20th Century Studios executives that his sequel budget was so high it represented “the worst business case in movie history.”
According to the filmmaker’s estimates, “you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”
Only five movies have crossed $2 billion globally, unadjusted for inflation.
Cameron’s 2009 Avatar sat at the top with $2.9 billion. Disney’s Avengers: Endgame came in the second position with $2.7 million, while Cameron’s Titanic slipped in the third slot with $2.1 billion.
Thus, as per Cameron, if Avatar: The Way of Water wants to break even, the film will need to surpass either Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($2.07 billion) or Avengers: Infinity War ($2.05 billion) in the fourth or fifth slots, respectively.
Meanwhile, Avatar 2 is reportedly estimated to have a production budget alone in the $250 million range.