Here’s why our Spring Break outlook isn’t looking as cold

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — The week ahead is looking warm and humid, and while there are a couple of cool fronts on the way, it’s not looking as chilly as previously thought to kick off our local Spring Break.

Fog is likely to form again overnight as temperatures only fall into the upper 60s. Tuesday afternoon will end up a lot like Monday afternoon: Warm and humid with highs in the low 80s under a partly sunny sky. Oak pollen levels remain extremely high, and there’s not much rain in the forecast to help wash it away.

The next cold front with a rain chance is still expected Friday, but it is looking weaker and not as cold as originally thought.

Why won’t the front be as cold?

Just three days ago it looked like a winter storm over the Pacific Northwest would dive southeast straight for the Gulf Coast, tugging all the frigid air along with it. Now it appears the storm will track more toward the Great Lakes, or roughly 1,000 miles farther north. That track will still allow some of the cooler air to slip into Texas, but instead of lows in the 30s and 40s it now looks like lows will be in the 50s behind the next two cool fronts.

Does this mean we are done with freezes?

Yes! It is highly unlikely we’ll even get back down to frost territory now that we know the storm track with this round of cold air will stay far to our north. We will still get cold fronts in March and April, especially in the timeframe around Easter, and while we cannot completely rule out another frost or light freeze, it’s looking like we are done with freezes for this season now that we’ll dodge this cold snap.

When are the rain chances this week?

You may pick up a few sprinkles in the morning fog and low clouds expected each morning through Thursday. The highest chance of rain comes Friday when the weak cold front arrives, but even then it’s only a 40% chance for rain. In other words, don’t expect the weather to help us out much in the oak pollen department.

What can we expect for the weekend?

The front arriving Friday is expected to push temperatures back down to “normal” ranges for Saturday. That means lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s. Gulf moisture will be quick to return as southeasterly winds return by Saturday afternoon. That’ll push lows back into the 60s and highs into the 80s for Sunday. The rain chances for both days this weekend will remain below 20%.