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HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — Fireworks might not be the only thing making noise in the Houston sky this July 4th. Rain chances are on the rise as moisture levels climb, but your evening plans are likely to be rain-free for America’s birthday celebrations.
A stray shower is possible near the coast around sunrise, otherwise it will be a dry start to the day with morning lows in the upper 70s. Sea breeze showers and storms will start popping south of Houston during the late morning hours and then push into the city during the early afternoon. Rain chances will likely peak between 12 p.m. and 4 p.m. across the city, then taper down quickly as we head into the evening. High temperatures will still climb into the mid 90s for most, but we should enjoy rain-cooled temps in the 80s for the late afternoon and evening hours.
How high do rain chances go this week, and why are they going up?
The heat ridge that brought our extended June heat wave is now over Florida, which opens the door for deeper tropical moisture to flow into Texas for the first time this year. We do not expect any tropical development because of high wind shear over the Gulf and Caribbean, but we do expect widely scattered thunderstorms to blossom daily Wednesday (60% chance) and Thursday (70% chance) when the deepest moisture is overhead. This type of pattern can produce waterspouts near the coast in the morning followed by heavy rain and street flooding farther inland during the afternoon. With the widespread clouds produced by these storms, even if you don’t get the rain you will likely get the rain-cooled air that brings below-average high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Is the heat ridge coming back?
Yes…. By the weekend, temperatures will already push back into the upper 90s as the moisture moves out and the heat ridge settles back in over Texas. This will likely bring triple-digit-heat back to many Southeast Texas communities next week.