AUSTIN — Attorney General Ken Paxton’s acquittal on impeachment charges has reignited a political rumble that could impact the 2024 Texas legislative races.

Insurgent Republicans loyal to Paxton have vowed to retaliate against House lawmakers responsible for his impeachment. In turn, legislators backing Paxton’s impeachment — including five Collin County Republicans — will likely be defended by House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, and other allies.

Though the Senate jury decided Paxton’s immediate fate, Texas voters will be the final arbiters of the impeachment saga, which will now play out at the ballot box.

Paxton is not expected to sit on the sidelines. He’s likely to use his substantial campaign war chest to settle political scores.

“He’s been raising millions of dollars ever since the impeachment and some of that money will now be directed at some of his tormentors,” Dallas-based conservative radio talk show host Mark Davis said after the verdict.

At a Collin County pre-Labor Day GOP picnic, Paxton urged supporters to “clean house,” a thinly veiled rally cry against House members who impeached him in May.

“Even if he is not successful in toppling a high percentage of those who came after him, he will still earn points for drawing a line in the sand and saying, ‘I’m going to make you pay for what you tried to do to me,’” Davis said.

Paxton is now the conduit for a political fight that’s been raging for years in the Republican Party.

GOP insurgents ready for a fight

Backed by campaign dollars from West Texas oil baron brothers Dan and Farris Wilks and businessman Tim Dunn, insurgent candidates have challenged GOP lawmakers, and even Gov. Greg Abbott, in past primaries. Established Republicans have won most of the battles, though GOP elected officials are wary of primary contests.

“Nobody wants to go against that West Texas money,” said former state Sen. Bob Deuell, R-Greenville, who lost a 2014 primary to Sen. Bob Hall of Edgewood.

The Paxton trial has exacerbated relationships between the House and Senate, as Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Phelan have feuded over the merits of the House investigation and decision to impeach Paxton.

From the bench after Saturday’s verdict, Patrick said the impeachment “should not have happened and hopefully never again.”

Phelan struck back in a statement that said Patrick was “confessing his bias and placing his contempt for the people’s House on full display.”

The fight over Paxton offers a twist in old rivalries. The insurgents from the hard right of the GOP are usually the aggressors. Next year’s elections could also feature anti-Paxton Republicans trying to deal a mortal blow to the insurgents they consider the fringe of Texas conservative politics. Paxton’s acquittal makes that more difficult.

“Ken Paxton is going to play a role in the 2024 primaries on both sides,” Tarrant County-based political consultant Jeremy Bradford said. “My hope is that regardless of how the primaries come out, we are unified in November.”

Paxton’s impeachment resulted in a clarion call to hard-right conservatives who share his political ideology.

After the verdict, Sen. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, said House members could pay a political price for impeaching Paxton in what he described as a flawed process.

“We have squandered millions and millions of taxpayer money and wasted a great deal of time as a result of a sham investigation,” he said, adding that he expected the impeachment trial to be an issue in the 2024 GOP primary.

Paxton supporters have tried to put Texas politics on the national stage and rally conservatives across the country by appearing on the podcast hosted by former President Donald Trump senior adviser Steve Bannon.

Former state Rep. Jonathan Stickland, R-Bedford, said anti-Paxton Republicans would have a price to pay.

“Anyone that votes against Ken Paxton in this impeachment is risking their entire political career, and we will make sure that is the case,” Stickland said during an interview last month on Bannon’s War Room.

Lawmakers supporting Paxton’s impeachment would have to pay a political price, said Luke Macias, director of Defend Texas Liberty.

“I have seen a significant increase in the amount of energy going on statewide against these House Republicans as a result of that Paxton vote,” he said before the verdict. ”Dade Phelan basically made a decision to walk his members off of the plank.”

Katrina Pierson, the 2016 spokesperson for Trump’s presidential campaign, fanned the flames.

“Grassroots conservatives need to keep a list of Texas House Representatives who voted to impeach @KenPaxtonTX in the sham investigation,” she said on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter. “When they … come under attack by the left, the media, or their staffers perhaps reconsider supporting them. Don’t defend them. Don’t donate to them.”

Establishment strikes back

One former lawmaker, Dallas’ Jason Villalba, knows what it’s like to be primaried by a GOP rival backed by insurgent groups. He lost a primary fight to Lisa Luby Ryan, who went on to lose the Dallas House District 114 general election to Democrat John Turner.

The Paxton supporters won’t be successful in 2024, Villalba said before the verdict.

“Those people who are talking about political retribution for the senators taking their duties very seriously, and voting in accordance with their principles, will find it hard to do that,” said Villalba, chairman and CEO of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation.

Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas, agreed.

“Trying is one thing; whether they will be successful is another,” he said.

“These groups don’t have a great record running successful primary challenges to Republican incumbents,” Henson added. “On the other hand, Republican incumbents and office holders are very sensitive to primary challenges, whether they’re real or not.”

Money is always critical in political contests. A look at the campaign funds of politicians and groups that will be active in next year’s fight reveal the anti-Paxton forces have an advantage.

Texans for Lawsuit Reform, the group that backed former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman over Paxton in the 2022 GOP primary, has $33.3 million on hand. One of the PACs of Speaker Phelan has $436,914 in the bank. His campaign account is stocked with $4.7 million. The anti-Paxton Associated Republicans of Texas has $1.2 million in the bank.

In contrast, the Defend Texas Liberty PAC has nearly $434,000 cash on hand, the Stand With Paxton PAC has $500. Paxton has $2.7 million cash on hand and his wife, Sen. Angela Paxton, has $1.7 million in the bank.

Macias said campaign money is not an issue at this point.

“They love to complain about the conservative donors who are willing to criticize the Texas House, but they never admit that they always have more money in the establishment forces and they will spend far more than any conservative ever does to try to keep all of those liberal Republicans in power,” Macias contends. “The voters are frustrated and we do think that means that these House members are going to have to work very hard to keep their seats.”

Supporting Paxton could be a liability in general election contests next year when more moderate voters are influential. Because of redistricting, most GOP legislative candidates are in safe districts, which means they don’t have to worry about nonconservative voters.

“This is mostly about primary politics,” said Henson of the Texas Politics Project.