Survey finds majority expect key interest rate to remain unchanged

Topline Securities, a brokerage firm in Karachi conducted a survey of key market participants on their expectations of interest rate cuts in the upcoming monetary policy meeting due Dec 12.

In its survey, it found that 63 per cent of participants anticipate that the policy rate will remain unchanged, while 19pc of participants expect it go down by 50 basis points.

Recent developments that have taken place in the economic front include a rise in monthly inflation to 29.2pc. The two major factors behind the hike were noted to be gas prices, which have jumped by 520pc in the month of November, and electricity rates.

Moreover, a global decline in oil prices was noted given an international oil slump in the international markets. Oil prices slumped more than 2pc on Friday following a volatile trading week, as the market kept a wary eye on the latest round of OPEC+ production cuts and sluggish global manufacturing activity.

OPEC+ producers agreed on Thursday to remove around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil from the global market in the first quarter of next year, with the total including a rollover of Saudi Arabia and Russia’s 1.3 million bpd of current voluntary cuts.

Additionally, foreign reserves held by SBP noted a week-on-week rise of $77 million to stand at $7.257 billion, according to the central bank. The total reserves, held by SBP and commercial banks, were recorded at 12.39bn on Nov 24.

Due to the hike in SBP reserves, the rupee had also stabilised against the dollar, appreciating by Rs0.67 in four consecutive sessions ending Friday.