2024 Hurricane Season expected to be ‘above normal,’ forecast reminiscent of record 2020 season

The 2024 hurricane season is set to commence on June 1, and early forecasts are indicating a potentially active season ahead.

Meteorologists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are predicting an above-normal level of hurricane activity for this season, forecasting between 17 to 25 named storms. Within this range, they anticipate that eight to 13 of these storms may intensify into hurricanes, with four to seven potentially reaching major hurricane status, classified as Category 3 or higher.

Storms are designated as named storms when their sustained winds reach 39 mph or higher. A storm progresses to hurricane status when its sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Major hurricanes are those with winds exceeding 111 mph.

NOAA’s forecasters express a high level of confidence in their prediction of an above-normal season, with an 85% likelihood. This level of confidence is notably high compared to previous seasonal outlooks.

The factors contributing to the above-normal forecast include the emergence of La Niña conditions and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Additionally, reduced Atlantic trade winds and decreased wind shear are expected to create conditions favorable for tropical storm formation.

Preparation for severe weather and emergencies is emphasized by FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks, who highlights the importance of proactive measures in facing the challenges posed by the evolving climate landscape.

NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are introducing new tools and enhancements to enhance communication, analysis, and forecasting capabilities for the upcoming season.

The list of tropical storm names for the Atlantic basin is provided by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization. These names are organized into six rotating lists, each containing 21 alphabetized names. Names beginning with “Q, U, X, Y, or Z” are omitted, and the names alternate between male and female. If a storm is particularly severe, causing significant damage or loss of life, its name is retired and replaced by a new name chosen by the World Meteorological Organization.

In the event that the list of storm names is exhausted, additional storms will be named from a supplemental list. In the past, this supplementary list included names from the Greek alphabet, but this practice was discontinued after the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season to avoid potential complications associated with retiring Greek letter names.