For the July runoffs, and perhaps the November general election, ballots that are mailed instead of cast in-person could largely determine winners and losers—and change the way political campaigns are conducted in the coronavirus era.

The fight against the coronavirus has delayed runoffs, originally scheduled for May 26, until July 14. But it’s unclear if Texas will have turned the corner in the fight against the virus by Election Day. Texas residents could still be wary of gathering in polling places, where they could come in contact with people carrying the virus.

Senior voters have an easy solution. Texas law allows anyone over the age of 65 can vote by mail. So political analysts predict that the senior vote will be important as ever, since they are already accustomed to mailing their ballots. As of now, seniors and the disabled are the only non-absentee residents that can vote by mail.

“If people are still worried about gathering in large numbers come Election Day, and mail voting is limited to seniors, then seniors will have a disproportionate influence on the election,” said Matt Angle, a Democratic strategist and founder of the Lone Star Project. “I’m telling everybody on the ballot for the runoff election that my first preference would be reaching out to seniors.”

Republican consultant Bill Miller said the coronavirus will have a chilling effect on the entire electorate.

“To get people to leave a safe environment to go to a polling place is going to be a hard sell,” Miller said. “With voting it’s always been do I want to be bothered? Now this is an ‘I can get sick and die situation.’ Many voters are going to sit this one out.”

Historically, the mail vote has been a modest percentage of the overall turnout.

In Dallas County, for instance, mail-in ballots were 13 percent of the vote in 2018 and about 20 percent of the vote in 2016, the last presidential election year.

But in close races, a strong mail-in ballot program could be the difference between winning and losing. Most candidates for office already have a semblance of mail-in ballot campaigns and strategies.

According to data compiled by Texas Democrats, there are 3.3 million Texas voters over the age of 65. About 2.5 million seniors voted in the 2016 presidential election, and 2.4 million seniors voted in the 2018 general contest.

Seniors sure to cast ballots

For upcoming elections, the only sure thing is that seniors will be able to cast ballots, as they have done in previous elections.

“I imagine that campaigns in primary runoffs will heavily focus on ensuring they maximize the amount of eligible mail voters who request, complete, and return their ballots,” said David de la Fuente, a senior political analyst at the think tank Third Way. “Senior citizens and people with disabilities will become a more critical voting constituency than is typical in the runoff.”

The July runoffs include the Democratic primary for Senate between former Air Force combat veteran MJ Hegar of Round Rock and state Sen. Royce West of Dallas, as well as the Democratic runoff in Congressional District 24 between retired Air Force Col. Kim Olson and Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD trustee Candace Valenzuela. There’s also the Congressional District 3 runoff between lawyers Lulu Seikaly and Sean McCaffity and District 100 runoff in Dallas County between state Rep. Lorraine Birabil of Dallas and Dallas lawyer Jasmine Crockett.

Amid the fight against the coronavirus, Texas Democrats have filed a lawsuit to allow all Texans to be able to submit their runoff ballots by mail. Democrats are arguing that the fear of contracting the coronavirus is like a disability, so voters who have concerns about gathering outside of the home should be allowed to vote by mail.

“We believe the threat of falling ill at a polling location should be able to qualify you to vote by mail,” said Manny Garcia, the executive director of the Texas Democratic Party.

Garcia said it was important to get as many people to participate in upcoming elections as possible.

“You still have to have Democracy, even in tough times,” Garcia said.

State Rep. Matt Shaheen, R-Plano, said he hadn’t given any thought to expanding a mail-in ballot program.

But he said he expected the senior mail-in vote to be higher than in the past.

“It’s a safe assumption,” Shaheen said. “Seniors tend to be a higher voting bloc as well.”

Sought-after voters

Former Dallas County Republican Party Chairman Jonathon Neerman agreed that senior voters would be sought after in the upcoming elections.

“Every sophisticated campaign operation in Texas includes in its strategy a vote by mail program,” Neerman said. “In this election vote by mail will be more important than ever.”

Neerman said he was agnostic about whether to expand mail-in balloting to all residents.

“The question is will there be a change in who can vote by mail,” he said. “If the state expands who is eligible to vote by mail, there will definitely be a new emphasis in turning out residents who vote by mail.”

He added that would require elections departments to reconfigure how they approach ballot counting and security.

It could take days—or longer—to count ballots from an expanded mail-in program.

“The most important thing, however we do it, is that the public has to believe in the integrity of the process,” Neerman said, adding that the March primaries and the long lines to vote may also spur change.

“Vote by mail may be a strong alternative just because of what we saw in March,” Neerman said.

De le Fuente, the analyst, said he hoped “Abbott would do the right thing and lead.”

“The COVID-19 pandemic is bringing to light something all of us have known all along: all Texans should be allowed to vote by mail, no excuse required,” de la Fuente said. “And now it isn’t just a matter of Texans’ constitutional voting rights, but also an urgent one of public health and safety.”

“If Texas doesn’t expand its vote-by-mail qualification, only those who are over 65 years of age and those with a disability will be able to vote safely,” de la Fuente said.

In recent history, Republicans have dominated mail-in ballot programs.

Miller said the party’s acceptance of a broader mail-in ballot program will involve politics.

“That decision will be made base on if it helps them or not,” Miller said.