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HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — That’s a good start.
The Houston Astros knew they had to win nearly all of their remaining games in the last week of the season in order to have a heightened chance of making the postseason, no thanks to getting swept by the Kansas City Royals.
But on Monday, they can rest easy with that first victory towards controlling that playoff destiny.
The Astros dissected Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo for five earned runs, including two solo homers by Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, to pull out a 5-1 win.
The lion’s share of those scores came in the second inning when Jose Abreu led off with a triple. Then, Mauricio Dubon gutted out an RBI single with two outs. Martin Maldonado and Jose Altuve followed with back-to-back hits, giving Houston the early 3-0 lead.
Alvarez’s homer came in the next inning – a 439-footer to right-center. Tucker crushed his 419 feet bomb to right in the sixth inning.
In the midst of this, the Astros offense supported arguably Justin Verlander’s best start since his return to Houston, throwing in eight innings with eight strikeouts, three hits, and one earned run.
Houston faces Seattle two more times Tuesday and Wednesday, before facing the Arizona Diamondbacks for three games Friday through Sunday.
ABC13 breaks down what’s at stake, the odds of making the postseason, and what the ‘Stros face ahead against two other teams in the hunt for October.
Are the Astros out of the playoffs?
Entering Houston’s last week of the season, the two-time World Series champions (85-71) own a half-game lead over the Seattle Mariners for the third and final American League wild-card spot, or the No. 6 seed in the AL portion of the playoff bracket.
In terms of the AL West crown, the Astros are two and a half games back from the leaders, the Texas Rangers, who, like Seattle, have six games left in their season, compared to Houston’s five .
Why are the Astros playing for the wild card?
The Astros held a half-game lead over both Seattle and Texas heading into their home series finale against the 100-loss Kansas City Royals over the weekend. At the same time, Texas and Seattle faced off in Arlington, which set up the possibility of Houston extending its lead over one of their rivals.
However, Houston lost all three games against the Royals, while Texas benefitted from Houston’s mini-collapse by sweeping all three games against Seattle.
The AL West crown served as the de-facto second place in the league’s postseason bracket, and with a three-way race for the division, it was widely accepted that one or both teams who didn’t win the West would go for the consolation of playing for one or two of the three wild-card spots.
The Tampa Bay Rays, who have a better record than all three AL West combatants but no better than their AL East rivals, the Orioles, have virtually locked up the first wild card. The Toronto Blue Jays, who have played well enough to stay in the hunt, are the likely holders of the second wild-card by the end of the season.
Therefore, the Astros and the Mariners, who are hovering around 13-14 games above .500, will battle it out for the final wild-card spot unless Toronto, which is currently two games up on the ‘Stros for the second wild card, loses out for the rest of its games.
All of this isn’t to say that the Astros can’t win the AL West for another season, but there is little room for mistake to make that happen, and, in effect, Houston doesn’t hold its own destiny in that regard.
What needs to happen for Houston to make the playoffs?
Winning is a cure-all for disaster in pro sports, like the one Houston faced against KC, and the Astros indeed need victories.
Michael Schwab, a writer for the Juice Box Journal newsletter, broke it down in a post to X hours after Houston was swept to close out the home portion of the schedule. And, yes, there is a path if Houston drops a game.
Scenarios where Houston controls its own destiny:
- Astros sweep Seattle in three games and win at least one of three at Arizona.
- Astros win two of three in Seattle and sweep Arizona.
Scenarios where Houston will need outside help:
- Astros win two of three in Seattle and win two of three at Arizona, and Seattle loses one of four games in its final series against Texas.
- Astros win one of three in Seattle and sweep Arizona, and Seattle loses three of four games against Texas.
- Astros win at least three of the next six games, and Toronto loses at least three of its next six.
Additionally, Houston owns a season-series tiebreaker against the Rangers but holds a disadvantage to Seattle and Toronto.
What are Houston’s odds of making the postseason?
Before the weekend’s series, ESPN Analytics gave Houston a 92% chance of making the postseason, along with a 56% chance to clinch the division and a 36% probability of a wild-card spot.
But like the main character in “Weekend at Bernie’s,” consider a division championship pretty much dead despite keeping a small chance alive.
As of Monday, ahead of the start of the Astros-Mariners series, Houston held a 58% chance of making the playoffs, a 12% chance of winning the division, and a 45% chance of earning a wild-card spot.
Seattle, on the other hand, held a 48% chance of a playoff spot, with 8% odds for a division crown and a two-in-five chance of a wild-card spot.
In addition, Houston’s odds of winning a World Series took a hit after the Royals series. They are 4%, with the Rangers now with the best odds in the AL to take home their first world championship.
How have the Astros done against Seattle and Arizona in recent times?
Now that Houston needs to work in a Seattle sweep to help better its odds, fans can take solace that the Astros have actually swept the M’s at T-Mobile Park not too long ago.
The Astros’ last sweep in the Emerald City happened on July 22-24, 2022, similarly to start a six-game road trip.
The last time Houston traveled to Chase Field in Arizona for a series with the D-Backs, the ‘Stros won two of three games April 12-15, 2022. Like Houston, Arizona is seeking a way into the postseason through the National League wild card.
Additionally, the ‘Stros love upsetting fans as the visiting team. They are 17 games above .500 on the road this season.
So, if it will help you sleep Monday night, history is on Houston’s side, right?
Just to bring you back to earth, the M’s have won eight of 10 this season against Houston.
What’s left in Houston’s schedule?
Astros’ record, as of Monday night: 86-71.
- Tuesday: at Seattle, 9:05 p.m.
- Wednesday: at Seattle, 8:40 p.m.
- Friday: at Arizona, 8:40 p.m.
- Saturday: at Arizona, 7:10 p.m.
- Sunday: at Arizona, 2:10 p.m.+
All times are CT.
+ – denotes final Astros game of 2023 regular season