Current officeholders, big campaign accounts hold advantage ahead of primary elections

Texans recently celebrated Christmas, but now they’re gearing up for the 2024 primary election, which arrives after just eight weeks. This primary season carries more drama than usual, particularly in rural Republican races, where significant campaign donations are challenging incumbent officeholders.

Early voting for the primary begins on Tuesday, marking the start of crucial races that will largely determine the composition of the state legislature. While many districts favor the incumbents and lack viable challengers, several Republican incumbents face opposition supported by Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton.

In Texas, most Senate and House districts are non-competitive in November, making the March primary crucial, as fewer than two million voters will influence decisions for a state with nearly 30 million residents.

Despite historically low turnout and the absence of term limits, Governor Abbott and General Paxton are challenging the status quo, aiming to unseat incumbents in several key races.

Paxton, facing various legal issues, aims to oust over fifty House Republicans who supported his impeachment. Meanwhile, Governor Abbott seeks to remove House Republicans who opposed his school choice voucher initiative.

However, without significant support or funding, challengers face an uphill battle to capture voter attention in the primary elections, which typically see low engagement in February and early March.

While Republican primary voters prioritize immigration and border security, Paxton’s impeachment and Abbott’s school reforms may not sway their votes significantly.

Governor Abbott has better polling and fundraising figures, potentially giving him an advantage in contested races against rebellious Republicans. On the other hand, Paxton’s challengers face a tougher battle.

Although Republican dominance makes their primary crucial, the Democratic primary also features key races, including the U.S. Senate candidacy against Senator Ted Cruz and inner-party challenges.

Ultimately, the primary season shapes general election outcomes and reinforces partisan divides, with candidates focused on securing party nominations rather than appealing to the broader electorate.

In 2022, primary turnout was low, contrasting with higher participation in the November general election.