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5 questions that could determine Senate race between John Cornyn, MJ Hegar

Most Texas voters are paying close attention to the contest between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, a marquee event that will chart the course of Texas politics.

But another intriguing matchup is one spot below on November’s general election ballot. Incumbent Republican John Cornyn is trying to win reelection against hard-charging Democrat MJ Hegar.

Texas Democrats haven’t won a statewide race since 1994, and Cornyn hasn’t has a serious Senate challenge since 2002, when he beat Ron Kirk, the former Dallas mayor and U.S. trade representative.

With Trump dominating the headlines and the coronavirus pandemic severely limiting traditional campaigning, Cornyn and Hegar, a former Air Force helicopter pilot, are locked in a tactical struggle that could end the political career of the loser.

A Cornyn defeat would almost certainly send the three-term senator into retirement, while Hegar, who in 2018 narrowly lost a congressional race to Rep. John Carter, R-Georgetown, can’t afford to lose two straight high-profile contests.

Want to know where the race stands?

Here are five questions to consider as the general election draws closer.

How does Cornyn navigate a difficult political climate that in some areas is made more challenging by Trump?

Cornyn and his team realize that they are fighting against a tough political climate.

Polls show many suburban women voters have soured on Trump. If Cornyn is closely linked to Trump and his policies, that could hurt him in areas that Republicans have traditionally won, including the suburbs around Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.

But if Cornyn tries to move away from Trump, he’ll infuriate rural and small town voters who are solidly behind the president.

Sen. John Cornyn listens to President Donald Trump during a meeting with bipartisan members of Congress on school and community safety in the Cabinet Room of the White House on February 28, 2018.
Sen. John Cornyn listens to President Donald Trump during a meeting with bipartisan members of Congress on school and community safety in the Cabinet Room of the White House on February 28, 2018.(MANDEL NGAN / AFP via Getty Images)

That means Cornyn, a former Texas attorney general and former state Supreme Court justice, has to develop his own brand, or risk being defined by Hegar. She is already describing him as a “lapdog” for Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Cornyn will cast himself as a problem solver and is already touring his work on issues like mitigating the rape kit backlog that prevented crime victims from receiving justice. But he’ll have to avoid Hegar’s criticism of his handling of the pandemic and voting in near lockstep with Trump and McConnell.

Can MJ Hegar raise enough money to pull off an upset?

In 2018, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke raised a stunning $80 million for his close but unsuccessful Senate race against incumbent Ted Cruz.

Hegar won’t come near that pace. She has raised over $6.6 million for her campaign, most of it spent to beat state Sen. Royce West of Dallas in their July 14 runoff.

Yes, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has committed resources to help Hegar. Other national groups could follow. But in order to compete, Hegar’s campaign has to step up its fundraising or risk being buried by Cornyn, who has close to $15 million cash on hand.

Can Cornyn incite passion among conservative voters?

Though Cornyn has been winning elections in Texas since the 1990s, he’s not as well-known as Cruz.

Last week a Morning Consult poll showed Cornyn leading Hegar by a tight 44-38 margin. That helped prompt a seven-figure investment by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on behalf of Hegar.

A July poll by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler had Cornyn leading Hegar 37% to 26%, with 31% undecided.

Like other statewide elected officials, Cornyn has missed an opportunity to develop a stronger brand and build his own political machine.

Cornyn has never been beloved by strict conservatives. Now he must solidify the conservative base and win independent voters.

He’ll lean on Cruz and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for help.

Will Hegar unite Democratic voters?

While Hegar is an emerging star with suburban, white voters, she’s still largely unknown in communities of color.

In order to seal a victory in Texas, Hegar will have to rally Black and Hispanic voters, as well as her suburban base.

That’s not always easy.

U.S. Senate candidate MJ Hegar speaks with attendees at the Dallas County Democratic Party luncheon where she was a guest speaker on July 24, 2019 at Maggiano’s Little Italy restaurant at Northpark Center in Dallas, Texas. (Robert W. Hart/Special Contributor)
U.S. Senate candidate MJ Hegar speaks with attendees at the Dallas County Democratic Party luncheon where she was a guest speaker on July 24, 2019 at Maggiano’s Little Italy restaurant at Northpark Center in Dallas, Texas. (Robert W. Hart/Special Contributor)(Robert W. Hart / Special Contributor)

If O’Rourke had mustered better turnout with Black and Hispanic voters, he would have defeated Cruz.

In their primary fight, West questioned whether Hegar is a “true Democrat,” but says he’ll meet with her to settle their differences and unify the party.

In the primary, some liberal Democrats complained that Hegar wasn’t progressive enough, though Cornyn has attacked her support of the cap-and-trade pollution control policy, which is aimed at improving the environment, though critics say it would hurt the economy.

Since the 2020 election will not feature straight-ticket voting, voters will have to make an effort to cast a ballot for Hegar, though the Senate race is near the top of the ballot.

Democrats are united in their opposition against Trump, but Hegar needs to raise her profile in key areas across the state.

What impact will the pandemic have on the election?

No in-person political rallies, no whistle stop tours, no ice cream socials. That means big problems for candidates.

Politics is a contact sport, where participants rely on handshakes, hugs and selfies to connect with voters.

The pandemic has forced candidates to conduct their campaigns in the virtual arena. That makes it harder to strike passion in voters with a stirring speech or intimate gathering.

Hegar and Cornyn will also have to make critical decisions on when and if to deploy volunteers to knock on doors and work the polls during early voting and election day. Those decisions could determine the outcome of a close election.

The election is expected to judge the nation’s response to the pandemic.

Hegar does not hold public office, so she’ll be able to criticize Cornyn’s handling to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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