As battle for Texas House rages, Democrats, Republicans weigh bids to succeed Bonnen as speaker

As Democrats and Republicans fight for control of the Texas House, party insiders and prospective candidates are having quiet conversations about who will be the next Texas House speaker.

The drama hinges on whether Democrats can pick up nine seats in November’s elections and take control of the House. If that happens, you’ll see the first Democratic Party speaker since Pete Laney of Hale Center wielded the gavel in 2001. If Republicans hold on in November, expect a speaker from the GOP ranks to replace Dennis Bonnen.

Bonnen is retiring after a secret recording of a meeting with Empower Texans leader Michael Quinn Sullivan revealed the Angleton Republican disparaged Democrats, discussed targeting 10 Republicans for defeat and plotted to make the next legislative session the worst in history for local governments.

Now that he’s departed the political scene, the race for House speaker offers numerous possibilities.

The Texas Tribune’s Cassandra Pollock last Friday reported that both parties are considering candidates and it’s been a question posed to lawmakers participating at the annual TribFest.

No one has officially filed the paperwork with the Texas Ethics Commission to begin running for House speaker, so it’s against the rules for members to lobby each other for the job.

There may be a couple of candidates who emerge before the November election, but most contenders will likely wait until after the election.

Here are some of the possibilities.

If Democrats take control of the House, they will likely pick a woman or person of color to lead the chamber. Conversations I’ve had with several House members, lobbyists and consultants who haunt the capitol have produced numerous names.

Leading Democratic contenders include Senfronia Thompson of Houston, House speaker pro tempore Joe Moody of El Paso, Rafael Anchia of Dallas, Trey Martinez Fischer of San Antonio, Ina Minjarez of San Antonio, Oscar Longoria of Mission and Donna Howard of Austin.

Chris Turner of Grand Prairie leads the House Democratic Caucus, but it will be tough for a white male Democrat to emerge as speaker because the party is ready to make history. There has never been a woman or a person of color elected to lead the Texas House or Senate. House members choose their leader, while Texas voters elect the lieutenant governor who serves as president of the Senate.

The makeup of the Democratic Party is different than in 2001, when rural Democrats were still influential on the political scene. They have been nearly wiped out by the Republican Party’s dominance in small-town Texas. Now the Democratic Party’s caucus is dominated by women of color.

The competition among this group will involve the strength of the regional delegations, how hard Black and Hispanic members push for one of their own and the influence of women lawmakers. If the Democratic caucus can’t decide on a candidate, some Republicans could have the opportunity to swing the vote for a Democrat of their choice.

The Republican scenario is also interesting.

Republican members thought to be pondering runs are Four Price of Amarillo, Trent Ashby of Lufkin, Chris Paddie of Marshall, Dade Phelan of Beaumont and Geanie Morrison of Victoria. The Tribune reported Fort Worth Republicans Craig Goldman and Matt Krause as potential candidates. Both have to survive tough races in November. Weatherford’s Phil King could also be a candidate.

During the 2019 speaker’s race, some Republican candidates tried to reach a consensus with their party’s caucus before reaching out to Democrats for support. Bonnen sought a cross-section of support from both parties and won the race in short order.

With Bonnen not a factor and a diminished Freedom Caucus of ultra-conservative lawmakers, a Republican candidate will have to build a coalition from scratch.

And keep this in mind. After the 2008 elections Democrats came within two seats of controlling the House, and they used their clout to help elect Republican Joe Straus as speaker. If they fall short in November, Democrats will still have a say in electing the next speaker, particularly if Republicans aren’t unified.

North Texas voters will be critical in deciding the November elections because there are hard-fought contests in Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties. That could give a speaker candidate from the Dallas area an added boost.

While the November election will determine the party identification of the next speaker, it might also produce a contender that convincingly wins a tough election, or helps his or her party hold the majority.