Democrats appear unlikely to pick up U.S. House seats in Texas suburbs as Republican response proves resolute

WASHINGTON – Texas Democrats running for Congress put Republicans on the defensive in the state’s fast-changing suburbs, but it appeared unlikely late Tuesday that they would pick up even a few — or even any — U.S. House seats in territory that the GOP has long dominated.

Upwards of a dozen districts were home to real competition on Election Day, with Democrats pursuing pickups in 10 races and Republicans seeking to win back two seats they lost in 2018.

That political activity, which was unthinkable even just four years ago, played out all over the Lone Star State. But five key races in North Texas provided a primer of sorts, signaling that a resolute Republican response would ward off any true Democratic wave.

Dallas Rep. Colin Allred, a freshman Democrat, did fend off Republican Genevieve Collins by a comfortable margin in a seat the GOP hoped to flip back.

Democrat Candace Valenzuela and Republican Beth Van Duyne were also locked in a tight race for an open GOP-held seat in North Texas’ mid-cities. Van Duyne declared victory just before midnight Tuesday but Valenzuela hadn’t conceded.

But Rep. Van Taylor, R-Plano, won by a big margin against Democrat Lulu Seikaly. Ditto for Rep. Roger Williams, R-Austin, who was squaring off against Democrat Julie Oliver in a district that includes some Fort Worth suburbs.

Rep. Ron Wright, R-Arlington, also defeated Democrat Stephen Daniel.

The status quo mostly won out elsewhere in Texas, too, though a couple of races had yet to be called late Tuesday. The outcomes held significant implications for the next Congress, which will continue to see the U.S. House operate under Democratic control.

A larger Texas Democratic congressional delegation would’ve provided them greater say over everything from policies to leadership posts, while a smaller Texas Republican one – still the nation’s largest state GOP contingent – would’ve knocked down long-standing clout.

Even as Texas’ congressional landscape underwent a major shift this cycle, the end result was poised to be largely the same.

Indeed, Election Night featured little drama for most of Texas’ U.S. House delegation. Many incumbents cruised to victory, with Democrats dominating the state’s urban centers and Republicans running up the score in Texas’ vast rural areas.

In North Texas, for instance, Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas, won a 15th term with ease, while Rep. Kay Granger, a Fort Worth Republican whose district stretches toward Mineral Wells, had no trouble on her way to a 13th term.

Those kinds of safe districts also sent some familiar names to Congress.

Former Dallas Rep. Pete Sessions, a Republican, won back a seat in the House after he moved to an open district that includes his childhood home of Waco. In the Panhandle, former White House physician Ronny Jackson, a Republican, secured victory in a landslide.

But the real story was always going to be Texas’ expanding U.S. House battlegrounds, which charted a significant political transformation that played out over the last four years.

In 2016, the only competitive U.S. House race in Texas was the sweeping border district that’s being vacated this cycle by retiring Rep. Will Hurd, R-San Antonio. In North Texas, Democrats didn’t even bother fielding a candidate in the district now represented by Allred.

Now, a full third of Texas’ 36 U.S. House seats saw legitimate fights.

A more competitive ballot also resulted in mountains of campaign moolah. In those 12 hot U.S. House races, the candidates collectively raised more $96 million and spent more than $84 million through mid-October. That’s more than triple the amounts from four years ago.

Nearly all of that action was driven by unheard-of Democratic energy – and the GOP’s robust reaction – in the traditional Republican turf that comprises Texas’ fast-growing suburbs outside of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.