Tropical system in the Gulf brings back rain chances

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — We strongly encourage you to stay weather aware through the weekend as we monitor a tropical disturbance that will impact Texas next week.

Our stretch of picture-perfect weather comes to an end today. The air will feel sticky again with lows in the low 70s and highs in the upper 80s. The highest rain chances will be along the coast, especially in the afternoon and evening. Tropical moisture will increase Sunday night as the tropical disturbance moves closer to Texas.

What do our rain chances look like with this tropical disturbance and how much rain could we get?
At this time we have an 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday, and those are the days we are most likely to experience flash flooding. There is still uncertainty with respect to how much rain we could get because it will depend on the exact track and speed of the tropical disturbance. At this time we are expect 2-5″ of rain generally north of I-10 with 5-10″ south of I-10 to the coast. Isolated totals above a foot are possible.

Could this disturbance become a hurricane?
While unlikely, it is possible. The strength will depend on how long it stays over water. If it avoids making landfall in Mexico, it will have an opportunity to strengthen. Regardless of how strong it gets, the moisture will spread northward and present a threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding a few days next week. You can stay informed on the tropics with our daily tropical update.