Over the decade we’ve had some extraordinary years in politics, so it’s likely that 2022 will offer more of the same.

The year will be highlighted by critical midterm elections that will shape the course of national and Texas politics. And like every election since 2016, these contests will be tinged by the deep political divisions in our nation.

Just as any election cycle, the fate of 2022 candidates will be determined by Texas voters’ appetite for change.

Here are five questions that will determine how the year unfolds.

Will President Joe Biden be an asset or albatross?

Historically, the party that controls the White House suffers losses in congressional and state races. The degree of those losses depends on how unpopular the president is, and the fieriness of the resistance against him.

Under President Barack Obama in the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats lost a net 63 seats in the House and control of 11 state legislatures. In Texas, Rick Perry easily won reelection and Republicans dramatically expanded their majority in the Texas House. This came after 2008, when Democrats came within two seats of seizing control.

In 2018, when Donald Trump was president, Democrats won back the U.S. House. And Texas Democrats won 12 seats in the Legislature.

Given history, Republicans are in for a big year. President Joe Biden’s approval rating has slipped since his election. He’s been unable to get traction over two signature pieces of legislation — the COVID-19 relief package and a bipartisan infrastructure plan.

Unless Biden turns it around, Texas Democrats will struggle to make gains in their statewide and legislative races.

Can Beto O’Rourke upset Greg Abbott for governor?

Before I discuss this question, let’s examine whether Gov. Greg Abbott, the two-term incumbent, will have a problem getting by former state Sen. Donald Huffines of Dallas and former Texas GOP Chairman Allen West of Garland in the March 1 Republican primary.

Abbott is heavily favored to win the contest, even though Huffines and West have constantly hammered him from the right about his pandemic policies and border securities approach. The genesis of the campaigns against Abbott involved his initial mask mandate and shut down of businesses in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. But Texas was one of the first states to reopen and Abbott has since decried mandates on masks, vaccines and vaccine passports. Still, Huffines appears to be setting the pace in the primary, though it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to muster the votes to beat a sitting incumbent, even with a guy named Rick Perry also in the primary. No, it’s not the former governor.

Meanwhile, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke has been campaigning across the state, telling crowds that Abbott focuses on wedge issues such as unnecessary election laws while leaving the state at risk for another power grid failure. Abbott says the issue has been fixed and that a repeat of last February’s winter storm is unlikely. O’Rourke disagrees and contends Abbott should focus more on education, health care and infrastructure, not the grievances of Trump.

Abbott has criticized O’Rourke as out of touch with most Texans. His ads dub his Democratic rival as “wrong way O’Rourke.”

O’Rourke will have the money and organization to compete, but can he convince a mostly conservative electorate to dump the incumbent and trust him to be more moderate than liberal?

Can Attorney General Ken Paxton get reelected?

Attorney General Ken Paxton is used to legal problems. He’s been under a security fraud indictment since 2015. He’s also being investigation by the FBI, according to reports, for corruption in his office. The two-term incumbent has denied wrongdoing.

His Republican rivals think there’s blood in the GOP waters. He’s drawn primary opposition from Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert of Tyler.

Still, Paxton is favored to win the nomination, partly because he’s endeared himself to the state’s most conservative voters, who — to this point — view his legal woes as politics. Paxton also has the backing of Trump, who still controls the Republican Party.

Bush has warned that nominating Paxton would provide an opening for Democrats, who will select a nominee from a field that includes former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, Dallas civil rights lawyer Lee Merritt and former ACLU lawyer Rochelle Garza.

O’Rourke notwithstanding, Democrats see unseating Paxton as their best chance to win their first statewide race since 1994

Will the state’s electrical grid hold?

Voters are expected to give state leadership a mulligan after last February’s winter storm that left millions without power and water.

Abbott and lawmakers say they’ve fixed the problem.

But if the Texas power grid fails again this winter, Abbott and Republicans may have to pay a price. O’Rourke and Democrats are making the need to fortify the power grid a campaign issue. But that message could be melted by a mild winter.