After a brief increase, Dallas COVID hospitalizations have stabilized

Despite a rising number of COVID-19 cases, North Texas appears to have staved off an accompanying increase in hospitalizations that has plagued the rest of the country.

Dallas-Fort Worth typically lags a few weeks behind cities such as New York and Boston in COVID trends, but the area is now months behind other metro centers in hospitalization jumps. Hospitalizations nationwide had been increasing since early April, although they represented only a fraction of the hospitalizations seen during the omicron-variant surge that peaked in January.

North Texas hospitalizations have hovered between 150 and 200 since April, rising above 200 only in the last two weeks. The short-lived spike seems to be flattening already, with 267 patients on May 31 and 263 patients on June 7, according to Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council data.

Local public health experts don’t know exactly why the area’s hospitals are seeing so few COVID patients, but they suspect it’s a combination of COVID strains that cause less severe illness, widespread immunity and possibly even Texas’ warm climate.

“We don’t know why we’re doing OK right now, but we’re certainly thankful,” said Dr. Philip Huang, director of Dallas County’s health department. “It suggests a combination of fairly good protection levels through vaccination and infections from easily-spread variants.”

The steady and relatively low COVID hospitalization levels are a welcome reprieve from the onslaught of coronavirus patients DFW hospitals saw during the omicron surge. Patients hospitalized with the virus topped 4,000 in late January as health care organizations struggled with outbreaks among their own employees.

BA.2.12.1, an omicron sub-variant, has since taken over as the dominant COVID strain in the U.S. Though more transmissible than its predecessors, the strain causes less severe illness, especially for people who are vaccinated against the virus.

COVID cases are still climbing across North Texas. Dallas and Tarrant counties could each see more than 600 new infections daily in the next several weeks, according to a June 1 forecast from UT Southwestern.

Case counts are likely even higher than reported, experts say, as people are increasingly testing for the virus at home or foregoing testing altogether.

At-home testing may be a positive trend, said DFW Hospital Council CEO and President Steve Love. People who test positive at home don’t risk spreading the virus at testing sites, and they can immediately begin their isolation rather than waiting hours or days to receive test results.

Other, less-anticipated forces may also be helping keep COVID’s impact low in Dallas. Health experts are anecdotally reporting more non-COVID respiratory illnesses right now, which could be impacting COVID’s ability to spread.

“We’re seeing a lot of other respiratory viruses [in emergency rooms.] We’re seeing stuff we would normally be seeing in the fall, like colds,” said Dr. Trish Perl, a professor at UT Southwestern Medical Center’s Department of Internal Medicine. “We have seen that, when one virus is circulating, you won’t always see others.”

Dallas’ warm weather may also be contributing to fewer cases and hospitalizations compared to colder areas of the country, Huang said, as people increasingly gather outside, lessening the potential spread of the virus.

Both Perl and Huang cautioned that, though North Texas is seeing few hospitalizations currently, that could change quickly. Immunity from previous infections and vaccinations can wane within months.

Anyone age 5 or older is eligible for booster doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Children ages 5 through 11 can get a booster shot five months after the initial Pfizer vaccine series. People 12 or older who are immunocompromised can get a second booster at least four months after their first booster dose, while anyone 50 or older can receive a second booster in the same time frame.

The Food and Drug Administration is expected to make its decision on whether to approve COVID vaccines for children under 5 in the coming weeks.