How severe weather and tornado trends have changed over the past four decades

In the current year, tornadoes have already claimed the lives of at least 58 individuals across 10 states, surpassing the average annual tornado fatalities in the United States. Recent data from Climate Central suggests a shift in severe weather and tornado patterns over the past four decades, with notable impacts on who is affected and where.

According to Climate Central’s findings, the traditional Tornado Alley region is moving eastward, with an increase in potential tornado occurrences observed in states like Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama. Conversely, there has been a slight decrease in tornado activity in the conventional Tornado Alley areas encompassing The Panhandle, Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas. However, severe weather can manifest east of the Rocky Mountains under suitable conditions, which holds true for Southeast Texas.

Meteorologist Elyse Smith of ABC13 recently spoke with Dr. Harold Brooks, a severe weather expert from NOAA’s Severe Storm Laboratory, who attributed Houston’s susceptibility to severe weather to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico. Dr. Brooks highlighted the abundant moisture from the Gulf as a crucial factor, readily available within hours.

Of significant concern is the shifting demographics of those impacted by severe weather. The eastward shift of tornado activity is putting more vulnerable communities at risk, including rural areas and residents of mobile homes. Research indicates that tornado-related fatalities are ten times more likely in mobile homes compared to permanent structures, with a higher concentration of mobile home communities observed across the mid-South, coinciding with the increasing tornado trends in the region.

Dr. Brooks also noted that although the frequency of tornado days has decreased, the number of tornadoes per year has remained constant, intensifying the potential danger associated with severe weather outbreaks.