Republicans look to hold off Democrats’ gains in Dallas, win back Texas House seats in 2020

Luisa del Rosal is a dream candidate for Dallas County Republicans.

She’s a millennial, a Latina and an immigrant. She’s also a traditional pro-business Republican who describes herself as “pro-life.”

“I’m a conservative Republican and I’m a proud one,” she said. “I want to talk about all the things we’ve done that have led to prosperity.”

But del Rosal faces several challenges next year as she runs for a seat in the Texas House. She’s up against an incumbent Democrat, John Turner, whose moderate approach and yeoman work ethic during his first session in the Legislature impressed many in his district and kept him out of the political fights that engulfed other freshman Democrats.

Many Dallas County Republicans are facing the same test as they look to win back seats they lost in 2018, or at least hold on to the seats they still have. The fields will be set Monday at 6 p.m., the filing deadline for the March 3 GOP and Democratic primaries.

Perhaps a bigger concern — or advantage, depending on whom you ask — is that del Rosal is on the ticket during a year when President Donald Trump and his no-holds-barred style of Republicanism will be on the ballot.

Jim Henson, a political scientist at the University of Texas, said the expectation in the state given last year’s election is the continued growth of Democratic voters. But because 2018 had an unusually high turnout, it is difficult to gauge how much more growth is left.

“Was the big surge in 2018? Was 2018 closer to a new floor or a new ceiling?” he said. “I’m not sure anybody knows. Everybody is trying to figure it out.”

But Republicans like del Rosal are optimistic. The Democrats may have surged in the last election, she says, but Republicans have delivered economic prosperity for nearly two decades and are eager to prove they’ve still got it.

“Republicans are very aware of the efforts Democrats are making, and we’re going to meet it with strength and the might of the Republican Party,” she said.

Wake-up call

North Texas Republicans were on the wrong side of an electoral drubbing in 2018, when they lost 12 seats in the Texas House, including five in Dallas County and one in traditionally conservative Denton County. In the two Dallas County districts they did win, it was by fewer than 1,500 votes combined.

Seventeen statehouse races were decided by less than 10% of the votes. Ten of those races were in North Texas, including in traditionally red counties like Collin and Tarrant.

That was a wake-up call, said James Dickey, chairman of the Republican Party of Texas.

The GOP has doubled its field staff in the area and focused on candidate recruitment for next year’s elections, in which Democrats need just nine more seats to gain a majority in the Texas House for the first time since 2003.

Del Rosal was among the first to enter a Dallas County race against a Democratic incumbent. She’s been joined by former state Rep. Linda Koop, whose race against Richardson Rep. Ana-Maria Ramos will be among the most closely watched after Ramos upset the two-term incumbent last year.

Koop thinks her ouster was affected by events beyond her control — namely, the unexpected rise of Democratic Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke and a heated congressional battle that overlapped with her statehouse district.

“That caused a lot of turnout and a lot of money being put into the district,” Koop said. “I just happened to be caught in the middle of that.”

Koop, who grew up in the district and represented it at the city level on the Dallas City Council before going to the statehouse, said Ramos, one of the most liberal members of the House, is out of touch with her constituents.

Koop said she would work with both parties to help find sustainable sources of revenue for public education and would stay away from partisan issues to focus on the needs of her district, such as transportation and workforce development.

It’s a strategy many Republicans will want to follow, but a difficult one. Trump will still be at the top of the ticket, and winning over his supporters could make or break down-ballot Republicans, including the moderate Koop.

“They can’t renounce Trump because as of now, he’s still very popular with the Republican base, but they can’t get too close to him in an election year in which the turnout of Democrats and preferences of independents are as of yet unknown and hard to predict,” Henson said.

Protecting incumbents

North Texas Republicans also have to defend the seats they hold.

Democrats are targeting Dallas County Reps. Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button, as well as Collin County Reps. Jeff Leach and Matt Shaheen, who won by fewer than 400 votes.

In 2019, Republican leaders pivoted away from controversial issues like sanctuary cities and regulating the bathrooms transgender people can use, and moved toward funding public education and trying to control rising property taxes.

That shift could provide GOP incumbents cover from Democratic accusations that Republicans focus too much on divisive issues, to the detriment of the state.

Button, a 10-year legislative veteran who won her race by 1,110 votes, pitched herself as a moderate voice in the statehouse who worked on finding funding sources for Dallas Democratic Rep. Victoria Neave’s initiative to clear the state’s rape kit backlog.

“You have to know your district and you have to always have that very open-minded attitude,” Button said. “Some people are extremist types, but I’m not. … I did not sign on to the bathroom bill in the 85th session. We focused on the major items voters really cared for.”

Meyer highlighted his support of the school funding bill and his efforts to improve services to students in special education. Meyer also pushed through a bill that would punish people for sending unwanted lewd images electronically.

“I’m very confident that in November 2020, voters will remember the work we’ve accomplished,” he said. “We are 100% focused on our district and what our voters care about as it relates to our district and the state of Texas. That’s what matters to our voters, that’s what we’ve done.”

Democrats plan to highlight votes on more controversial issues.

Austin Rep. Celia Israel, who leads the House Democratic Campaign Committee, said the GOP would not have emphasized public schools — and set aside controversial issues — if voters hadn’t ousted so many Republicans in 2018.

This year, she said, Republicans authored “religious liberty” bills that targeted members of the LGBT community and a law that limited the ability of women to receive health care by targeting Planned Parenthood funding.

“Every one of my colleagues are all on the ballot every two years and we should be held accountable for the votes that we took,” Israel said.

Democrats also will work to remind voters of the so-called taxpayer-funded lobbying bill, a failed effort that would have banned cities and counties from using taxpayer money to hire lobbyists to advocate for them in Austin. Button was one of a handful of Republicans who voted against it, while Meyer voted in favor.

Button said the issue was one of “freedom of speech” and that cities and counties have the right to voice their concerns. But she did not rule out voting for a similar proposal in the next session.

“A lot of things are changing,” she said. “I’ll decide when the time comes.”

Meyer said he stands by his record and voted in line with constituents who resented cities and counties lobbying against the property tax bill.

Regardless of politics at a national level or the new energy Democrats felt after the last election, Meyer is optimistic about Republicans’ chances next year if they focus on the successes of last session.

“Our voters look at our results, and I’m confident we’re going to hold on to the House,” he said.