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WASHINGTON — Congress is preparing for a showdown Wednesday on a doomed bill to protect minority voting rights that Democrats view as critical – and that, if it were in place, would derail the gerrymandered redistricting plan just finalized in Austin.
Republicans set aside a scant 14 of 38 U.S. House seats in Texas for Democrats, leaving the rest for themselves.
That’s 37% for Democrats, 63% for Republicans – a gap of 26 points that doesn’t even come close to passing muster under the Freedom to Vote Act, which uses recent federal elections as the benchmark to determine whether a congressional map is even modestly fair.
“There are serious voting rights issues on the map,” said Michael Li, a redistricting expert at the left-leaning Brennan Center for Justice.
He noted how blatantly the Texas congressional map that Gov. Greg Abbott will soon sign violates the proposed ban on partisan gerrymandering.
Republicans carried Texas in the last two races for president and U.S. Senate – but not by anything close to 26 points.
The best showing was Sen. John Cornyn’s 9.6-point victory last fall over Democrat MJ Hegar. Donald Trump, then the president, topped Joe Biden by just 6 points.
In 2018, Sen. Ted Cruz fended off Beto O’Rourke by a nail-biting 2.6-point margin.
In 2016, Trump won the White House while topping Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 points.
The Brennan Center has identified a congressional map proposed by Illinois Democrats as likewise violating the proposed rules. But, Li said, “Texas stands out” for having such a huge fairness gap.
The Supreme Court defanged the landmark Voting Rights Act in 2013, ending a requirement for Texas and other states to prove to the Justice Department that any proposed election changes weren’t discriminatory.
Republicans have stymied efforts to restore federal oversight.
Democrats in Texas and other states dominated by Republicans that have passed restrictive elections bills have clamored for help from Congress to safeguard voting rights.
The Freedom to Vote Act is a scaled-down version of their wish list.
Among other provisions, the Freedom to Vote Act would limit state voter ID requirements. It also would ban mid-decade redistricting, which Texas Republicans undertook in 2003 after winning control of the Legislature in the 2002 midterms.
As to partisan gerrymandering, it allows a deviation up to 7% from the four benchmark federal contests, meaning that Texas Democrats should have control of at least 16 congressional districts and Republicans should have no more than 22.
That’s a swing of four seats – enough perhaps to determine control of the U.S. House after the 2022 elections.
Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has been spearheading the Freedom to Vote Act as an alternative to a far more expansive bill that he and Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema of Arizona rejected. In the evenly divided Senate, these two moderate Democrats each effectively holds a veto.
But even with Manchin’s backing, the bill is expected to die in the Senate.
Democrats need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, and there aren’t 10 Republicans willing to help.
Progressives have been prodding Senate Democrats to take the dramatic step of suspending the filibuster when it comes to voting rights. That would be hugely inflammatory, and Manchin and Sinema reject the idea. So does President Biden, a veteran of decades in the Senate.
Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic majority leader, calls the bill a way to “ensure all Americans have a say in our democracy.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., calls it an attempted federal takeover of elections.
In a 5-4 ruling in 2019 in a North Carolina case, Rucho vs. Common Cause, Chief Justice John Roberts all but invited Congress to address complaints about partisan gerrymandering. He noted that courts try to stay out of such overtly political fights but emphasized that Congress has the clear authority to write rules that all states must follow.