Astros still have plenty of MLB games left to bounce back despite 7-19 start

The Astros have had a rough start to the season, losing 19 out of 26 games played so far. Despite being a team that has consistently made deep playoff runs in recent years, their chances of reaching the postseason have significantly decreased from an initial 86% to just 43%, according to FanGraphs.

To secure a playoff spot in 2024, the Astros will likely need to win around 89 games. This estimate is based on the fact that last season, the team clinched the division title with 90 wins, while the third Wild Card team had 89 wins.

Achieving 89 wins means the Astros would have to maintain a winning percentage of .603 for the remainder of the season, going 82-54 in their next 136 games. While this is technically possible, it’s not very likely.

Looking at their performance over the last three seasons, where they had a combined winning percentage of .599 and came close to reaching the World Series each year, it’s evident that consistently playing at a .600 level is challenging.

So, while it’s not impossible for the Astros to turn things around, it’s also not accurate to say that it’s still early in the season.