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ARLINGTON, Texas (KTRK) — The Houston Astros are a resilient crew, and you can see that in the last week of their regular season when they went from holding a position out of the playoffs to becoming the American League West champs.
So, it’s no wonder the ‘Stros, who are down 0-2 against the Texas Rangers in the AL Championship Series, aren’t ones to panic.
The team’s general manager, Dana Brown, spoke with reporters in Arlington on Tuesday, a day before the two ball clubs face off in Game 3 on Wednesday.
He was asked about the team’s demeanor and attitude with such a seemingly demoralizing playoff hole to deal with. According to him, the deficit is nothing to the players.
“At no time did I feel like these guys panicked, even when things didn’t look good, and they lost seven of the nine games to teams that lost 100 games. These guys just hung in there. It’s like, ‘OK, let’s go. We got the next series coming up.’ And I think that’s pretty big for teams that have played in the postseason,” Brown said.
That may be a good message to send to Astros fans who comparatively might not be able to stomach the bad times, including the multiple opportunities, including those with bases loaded, to take the lead in both Games 1 and 2.
Sports digs into the history the ‘Stros will have to accomplish to fulfill a comeback for the ages, as well as how recent events inform how Houston might be able to overcome a Rangers team that has won seven postseason games in a row.
Teams rebounding from 0-2 holes
Coming back from losing the first two games of a seven-game series in baseball is a lofty proposition to place on a team, no less one that has done it all in the postseason.
MLB.com reports that teams who have won the first two contests of a seven-game series went on to win 75 out of 89 times.
But for those seeing the glass half-full, 14 teams have accomplished the improbable, including four times in the league championship series.
The most recent time was in the 2020 National League Championship Series when the Dodgers trailed 2-0 and 3-1 to come back against the Atlanta Braves and win the pennant. As a bonus, all games were played in Arlington as part of the neutral site backdrop of the pandemic-shortened season. The Astros would also have to earn wins in Arlington to make it happen.
Arguably, the most famous example of a team coming back from a deep hole was in the 2004 ALCS when the Boston Red Sox, who trailed 0-3 against the rival New York Yankees, won four in a row en route to not only the AL pennant but also a World Series.
Houston could have become the second team in MLB history to come back from a 0-3 deficit in the 2020 ALCS but fell short in Game 7.
In the season before that, Houston actually swept the three road games in the 2019 World Series after losing the first two at home, but Astros fans certainly want to forget what ended up happening.
Nothing is impossible, ‘Stros fans, but the odds are steep. And speaking of…
Astros’ World Series chances drop
The analytics and sports betting worlds were bullish on the Houston Astros making it past the Rangers and winning the whole thing again before the defending champs lost two at home in the ALCS.
Those losses are swinging Houston’s chances ahead of Game 3. On Tuesday, FanGraphs showed the Astros holding a 24.1% chance of defeating the Rangers, holding a 75.9% chance of winning the pennant.
In addition, Houston holds the second-to-last – or third-highest – odds to win the World Series out of the remaining four teams at 13.1%.
Houston’s odds of winning the world championship also dropped at sportsbooks, with Caesars pricing the ‘Stros at +700. Texas is priced at +120.
Of course, these odds can swing with every Astros win or loss.
Road sweet road
The Astros clearly love being the away team, and earning a 51-30 record at their opponents’ home venues this season is proof enough.
So, for the Astros to get four wins out of the next five games, a sweep of the middle three contests in Arlington would be ideal.
And why not? Houston is riding a six-game road winning streak dating back to Sept. 27.
In addition, the Astros’ last three-game series against the Rangers on Sept. 3-5 was a sweep that saw them boast scores of 13-6, 14-1, and 12-3 – with the most recent game against Texas’ starting pitcher Max Scherzer, who will be throwing in Game 3.
In all, Houston owns six wins in seven games against the Rangers in Arlington.
And the team may have additional odds on its side with Cristian Javier starting in Game 3. Javier has yet to lose a start on the road in the postseason, dating back to ALCS Game 3 last year.
2023 ALCS schedule and results, Texas leads 2-0 in best-of-seven series
